112.624 | 98.8% | What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025? | Continuous |
85.685 | 98.3% | Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025? | Binary |
81.141 | 98.3% | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
66.949 | 87.5% | Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
64.754 | 97.9% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16) | Continuous |
64.137 | 80.6% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2) | Binary |
62.879 | 73.7% | What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025? | Multiple Choice |
58.278 | 54.3% | How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034? | Continuous |
55.189 | 83.3% | What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
53.668 | 71.9% | Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313? | Multiple Choice |
52.938 | 87.2% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES) | Binary |
50.416 | 99.8% | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | Continuous |
50.121 | 99.8% | Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting? | Multiple Choice |
49.689 | 99.8% | What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025? | Continuous |
49.512 | 96.5% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13) | Binary |
48.248 | 78.1% | What will the total number of tokens launched on the site pump.fun be, as of March 31, 2025? | Continuous |
47.138 | 99.7% | What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit? | Multiple Choice |
46.616 | 99.8% | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
46.600 | 82.7% | Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025? | Binary |
46.497 | 88.6% | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
44.237 | 85.7% | [Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025? | Continuous |
42.631 | 92.4% | When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
41.183 | 96.2% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
40.486 | 81.0% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2) | Continuous |
38.979 | 87.2% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD) | Binary |
37.853 | 91.3% | How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session? | Continuous |
36.986 | 98.0% | Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025? | Binary |
35.909 | 91.0% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA) | Continuous |
34.611 | 99.3% | Who will win the Tour de France 2025? | Multiple Choice |
34.610 | 86.5% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META) | Continuous |
34.491 | 86.7% | Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
34.477 | 99.6% | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | Continuous |
31.876 | 83.7% | What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025? | Continuous |
31.321 | 91.0% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA) | Continuous |
30.734 | 80.7% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25) | Continuous |
30.456 | 92.3% | Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025? | Binary |
29.527 | 87.2% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR) | Binary |
28.880 | 88.6% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
27.782 | 89.8% | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
26.847 | 88.6% | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
26.343 | 79.0% | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
26.258 | 88.6% | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
26.188 | 99.6% | Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025? | Binary |
26.014 | 93.0% | What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
25.657 | 94.3% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27) | Binary |
25.477 | 99.0% | Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025? | Binary |
25.046 | 99.8% | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
24.772 | 96.5% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13) | Binary |
24.215 | 99.6% | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | Binary |
24.104 | 88.6% | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
23.318 | 90.7% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
21.806 | 79.0% | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
20.678 | 87.0% | How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025? | Continuous |
20.414 | 80.1% | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin) | Continuous |
20.349 | 99.1% | Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships? | Binary |
19.428 | 99.3% | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
19.407 | 82.6% | How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025? | Continuous |
19.075 | 54.4% | How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034? | Continuous |
19.003 | 73.0% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2) | Binary |
18.764 | 86.2% | What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
17.986 | 99.8% | Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025? | Binary |
17.596 | 94.3% | What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025? | Continuous |
16.976 | 54.2% | Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government? | Multiple Choice |
16.801 | 99.9% | Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025? | Binary |
16.667 | 99.2% | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
16.210 | 86.9% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
16.022 | 97.9% | Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
15.008 | 88.6% | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
14.972 | 31.8% | When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill? | Multiple Choice |
14.414 | 90.6% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23) | Continuous |
14.262 | 96.5% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6) | Continuous |
14.071 | 98.5% | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | Continuous |
13.828 | 92.2% | How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
13.767 | 97.7% | Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant? | Binary |
13.477 | 88.6% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
13.278 | 89.2% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30) | Continuous |
13.255 | 87.9% | What will the highest rank of metac-GPT4o or metac-o1 be in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
12.996 | 24.4% | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | Continuous |
12.918 | 84.3% | Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025? | Binary |
12.816 | 61.6% | On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025? | Continuous |
12.417 | 77.7% | Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025? | Binary |
12.367 | 94.3% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20) | Continuous |
11.963 | 96.2% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16) | Binary |
11.937 | 79.0% | What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
11.911 | 87.6% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
11.868 | 76.0% | Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025? | Binary |
11.781 | 82.6% | How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025? | Continuous |
11.637 | 97.8% | What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025? | Continuous |
11.395 | 92.3% | What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
11.335 | 98.4% | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
11.290 | 42.1% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
11.240 | 96.7% | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
10.882 | 87.6% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
10.446 | 94.3% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27) | Continuous |
10.435 | 99.5% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
9.995 | 88.6% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1) | Continuous |
9.777 | 30.0% | What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act? | Multiple Choice |
9.535 | 99.8% | What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
9.303 | 89.8% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD) | Continuous |
8.909 | 66.9% | How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025? | Continuous |
8.868 | 96.2% | What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9) | Continuous |
8.457 | 48.5% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25) | Binary |
8.129 | 81.0% | Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
7.807 | 65.4% | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
7.636 | 81.4% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025) | Binary |
7.390 | 99.5% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA) | Continuous |
7.167 | 80.5% | Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025? | Binary |
7.041 | 96.5% | What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13) | Continuous |
6.901 | 87.0% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL) | Continuous |
6.118 | 97.8% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025) | Binary |
5.843 | 80.1% | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue) | Continuous |
5.803 | 29.9% | What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)? | Multiple Choice |
5.786 | 76.1% | Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025? | Binary |
4.959 | 26.9% | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
4.739 | 97.8% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025) | Binary |
4.587 | 97.5% | Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025? | Binary |
4.387 | 28.0% | Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026? | Binary |
4.332 | 68.4% | [Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have? | Continuous |
4.201 | 74.8% | What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025? | Continuous |
4.168 | 25.1% | Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)? | Binary |
3.708 | 96.3% | What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025? | Multiple Choice |
3.424 | 94.3% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27) | Binary |
3.408 | 97.2% | What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025? | Continuous |
3.402 | 85.1% | What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale? | Continuous |
3.277 | 85.6% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
3.231 | 30.2% | Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion) | Binary |
2.830 | 91.9% | Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
2.606 | 94.3% | How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025? | Continuous |
1.909 | 81.4% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
1.207 | 85.6% | What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT) | Continuous |
0.944 | 92.3% | How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
0.525 | 11.2% | Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025? | Binary |
0.268 | 97.8% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025) | Binary |
0.235 | 80.1% | What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses) | Continuous |
0.059 | 0.1% | Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025? | Binary |
-0.474 | 49.1% | Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation? | Binary |
-0.501 | 5.6% | Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025? | Binary |
-0.833 | 92.6% | Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025? | Binary |
-1.295 | 93.0% | How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
-1.407 | 97.8% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025) | Binary |
-1.650 | 81.4% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025) | Binary |
-1.926 | 89.8% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD) | Continuous |
-5.611 | 18.0% | Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN) | Binary |
-7.801 | 81.4% | Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025) | Binary |
-8.018 | 42.1% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN) | Continuous |
-8.174 | 96.5% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13) | Binary |
-8.738 | 99.7% | Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025? | Binary |
-9.003 | 89.2% | Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
-10.433 | 93.8% | Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025? | Binary |
-14.317 | 84.3% | Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games? | Multiple Choice |
-15.498 | 94.3% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27) | Binary |
-15.877 | 86.4% | What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META) | Continuous |
-16.019 | 89.2% | Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30) | Binary |
-17.847 | 87.6% | How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15) | Continuous |
-18.882 | 78.1% | Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025? | Binary |
-19.342 | 36.3% | Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk) | Binary |
-21.536 | 95.2% | Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit? | Binary |
-27.096 | 13.0% | Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? | Binary |
-31.333 | 45.5% | Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025? | Binary |
-38.401 | 77.1% | Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025? | Binary |
-245.857 | 98.8% | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
-285.224 | 69.6% | Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print)) | Binary |