valentin.vincendon

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.844		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
55.751	71.8%	What will be the maximum critical temperature (in Kelvin) for an ambient-pressure superconductor before the given years? (2025)	Continuous
55.390	74.5%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)	Binary
54.547	91.6%	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
49.394	99.9%	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
46.812	69.4%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (750 Input Tokens + 250 Output Tokens)	Continuous
43.802	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju)	Binary
40.699	60.2%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
40.054	95.3%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
38.359	97.3%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
37.390	70.9%	When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
35.316	73.3%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans)	Binary
35.126	99.7%	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
30.702	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
29.206	55.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
27.960	95.6%	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
27.705	55.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
27.385	79.7%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
26.599	74.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers)	Binary
25.852	44.2%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK)	Continuous
24.530	72.5%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
24.478	90.0%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
24.313	51.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales)	Continuous
23.601	69.4%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context))	Continuous
23.310	97.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
22.714	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
22.692	99.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
22.427	85.1%	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
21.439	95.9%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
20.813	89.9%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
20.810	55.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
20.767	78.7%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
20.756	73.2%	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
20.163	98.7%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
20.160	99.6%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
19.918	54.1%	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
19.427	95.1%	How many Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024?	Continuous
19.350	88.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
19.053	98.2%	What percentage of the African Union’s budget will be contributed by its member states in the budget for fiscal year 2025?	Continuous
18.923	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
18.871	94.6%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
18.253	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
17.082	98.9%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
16.321	56.5%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
16.258	55.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
16.168	97.8%	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
16.140	69.4%	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context))	Continuous
16.051	78.6%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
15.639	90.0%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
15.380	95.4%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
15.373	48.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
15.290	74.5%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles)	Binary
14.978	99.0%	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
14.705	88.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
13.479	55.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
13.338	55.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
13.308	90.8%	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
13.150	58.8%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
13.131	98.9%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
13.119	55.7%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
12.952	90.0%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
12.906	98.9%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
12.830	98.9%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
12.679	99.7%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
12.104	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
11.883	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
11.800	73.2%	Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?	Binary
11.780	97.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
11.492	30.3%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
11.374	71.1%	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
11.297	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
11.035	40.6%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
10.876	98.7%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
10.489	98.9%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
10.066	64.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals)	Binary
9.920	97.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
9.546	73.7%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
9.490	98.9%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
9.460	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
9.248	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
9.242	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
9.047	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez)	Binary
9.045	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
9.036	83.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
8.803	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
8.789	61.8%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
8.599	94.5%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
8.296	99.1%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
8.032	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov)	Binary
8.026	73.9%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
7.964	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
7.872	96.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
7.852	37.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
7.669	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
7.487	37.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
7.396	59.8%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
7.280	56.4%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
7.165	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
7.123	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
7.107	54.3%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets)	Binary
6.720	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
6.705	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
6.635	74.5%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills)	Binary
6.514	97.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
6.482	64.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
6.387	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
6.132	72.3%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
6.098	64.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens)	Binary
5.958	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
5.505	54.7%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
5.454	59.8%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
5.436	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
5.426	96.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP))	Binary
5.383	73.4%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.315	50.9%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
5.303	42.4%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
5.059	64.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
5.018	74.1%	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
4.888	64.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
4.886	83.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
4.840	99.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.507	35.2%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
4.454	72.0%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
4.351	37.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
4.344	37.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
4.326	96.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang))	Binary
4.252	37.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
4.184	51.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party)	Continuous
4.182	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
4.176	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
4.127	63.8%	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
3.978	15.5%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
3.922	99.9%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
3.863	77.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
3.834	59.8%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
3.777	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
3.737	43.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
3.660	64.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers)	Binary
3.646	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
3.587	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
3.543	46.2%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
3.455	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko)	Binary
3.412	59.8%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
3.377	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
3.328	64.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
3.293	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
3.272	79.0%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
2.977	64.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders)	Binary
2.939	89.3%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
2.884	26.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
2.769	95.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.676	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
2.665	74.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys)	Binary
2.641	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
2.579	64.3%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears)	Binary
2.494	76.8%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
2.484	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
2.480	60.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants)	Binary
2.471	22.5%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
2.468	74.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams)	Binary
2.465	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei)	Binary
2.463	69.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings)	Binary
2.410	49.3%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
2.394	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport)	Binary
2.324	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
2.297	51.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
2.262	46.8%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
2.234	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.195	37.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
2.059	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian)	Binary
2.005	96.7%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
1.980	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo)	Binary
1.953	44.6%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers)	Binary
1.930	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
1.901	84.1%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
1.814	99.3%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.779	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
1.650	49.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots)	Binary
1.639	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke)	Binary
1.638	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
1.632	54.4%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals)	Binary
1.581	37.2%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
1.555	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
1.514	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu)	Binary
1.512	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk)	Binary
1.506	64.2%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos)	Binary
1.505	58.7%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers)	Binary
1.500	72.1%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
1.469	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
1.430	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand)	Binary
1.414	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
1.404	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot)	Binary
1.398	22.2%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
1.385	72.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.369	69.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars)	Binary
1.344	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin)	Binary
1.299	74.5%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers)	Binary
1.269	59.8%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
1.267	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov)	Binary
1.242	90.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
1.190	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
1.185	70.8%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.140	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
1.113	74.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions)	Binary
1.044	57.0%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
1.010	85.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.006	58.2%	Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
1.000	54.4%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders)	Binary
0.993	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.976	96.6%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
0.959	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
0.936	50.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
0.919	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
0.863	43.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
0.862	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
0.767	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.751	95.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.747	72.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.719	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
0.716	16.6%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
0.710	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
0.705	79.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.704	4.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
0.685	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
0.678	69.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints)	Binary
0.660	72.4%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.644	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.630	54.3%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans)	Binary
0.606	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.538	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.522	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.512	16.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.509	54.4%	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
0.502	61.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.448	4.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
0.441	82.2%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.439	65.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.434	3.4%	What will the unemployment rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
0.420	90.3%	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
0.412	23.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.396	99.2%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
0.330	50.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
0.313	22.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.273	4.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
0.254	19.3%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
0.209	69.1%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks)	Binary
0.198	85.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.184	51.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats)	Continuous
0.171	4.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
0.170	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.158	4.2%	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
0.142	83.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.130	85.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.101	83.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.092	84.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.091	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
0.084	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.078	83.0%	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
0.058	0.1%	How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024?	Continuous
0.056	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
0.045	0.0%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
0.038	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.034	0.1%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
0.025	0.0%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
0.024	0.1%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2)	Binary
0.023	0.1%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
0.015	0.1%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1)	Binary
0.014	0.1%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
0.013	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
0.013	0.5%	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
0.012	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
0.012	0.0%	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
0.012	0.1%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3)	Binary
0.011	0.1%	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
0.011	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.011	0.0%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
0.010	0.0%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
0.008	0.1%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
0.007	0.0%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
0.007	0.1%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5)	Binary
0.006	0.0%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
0.006	0.1%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4)	Binary
0.006	0.1%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
0.006	0.1%	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
0.005	0.0%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
0.005	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.004	0.1%	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6)	Binary
0.004	0.0%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
0.003	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
0.003	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
0.003	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.002	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
0.002	0.0%	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
0.002	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.002	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.002	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
0.002	0.1%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
0.001	0.0%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
0.001	0.0%	Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
-0.174	73.4%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins)	Binary
-0.323	59.8%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
-0.517	51.7%	What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party)	Continuous
-0.628	8.2%	Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.897	69.0%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons)	Binary
-1.071	68.5%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts)	Binary
-1.191	59.8%	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
-1.875	73.4%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs)	Binary
-2.313	21.5%	What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-2.796	73.3%	Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns)	Binary
-4.985	98.9%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-5.987	98.9%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-14.419	38.2%	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
-17.768	89.9%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-18.168	98.9%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-23.658	98.9%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-35.471	97.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
-38.352	98.9%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
-42.149	97.4%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-54.939	98.9%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-109.802	50.9%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary