| 90.708 | 86.8% | How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 73.640 | 91.1% | What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 71.655 | 99.6% | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny some entities) | Binary |
| 65.811 | 99.6% | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries) | Binary |
| 64.167 | 89.6% | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) | Continuous |
| 60.760 | 89.6% | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron) | Continuous |
| 55.986 | 98.6% | What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024? | Continuous |
| 55.194 | 90.3% | How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 53.904 | 89.6% | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R) | Continuous |
| 48.095 | 66.6% | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 47.742 | 89.6% | What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025) | Continuous |
| 46.061 | 90.8% | What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 45.152 | 91.1% | What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 43.400 | 91.1% | What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 42.880 | 68.8% | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 42.658 | 85.4% | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 42.477 | 44.3% | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 37.841 | 88.5% | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco) | Binary |
| 35.761 | 99.7% | Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.801 | 64.7% | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 32.089 | 90.9% | What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 31.045 | 44.5% | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 28.991 | 89.8% | What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025) | Continuous |
| 28.903 | 66.8% | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 27.240 | 99.6% | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 26.791 | 86.5% | How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025? | Continuous |
| 26.273 | 43.9% | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| 26.211 | 90.3% | Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.604 | 89.8% | What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time? (2025) | Continuous |
| 24.307 | 58.5% | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 24.066 | 99.6% | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing) | Binary |
| 23.693 | 64.6% | What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 22.722 | 37.1% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 22.663 | 36.4% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 22.429 | 65.6% | What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 22.343 | 55.6% | What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2025) | Continuous |
| 22.049 | 36.4% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 21.768 | 36.4% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 21.355 | 41.9% | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 20.428 | 65.6% | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 20.202 | 66.7% | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 19.688 | 39.5% | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 18.164 | 65.4% | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 17.851 | 100.0% | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 17.768 | 27.8% | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.377 | 87.0% | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 17.345 | 34.3% | Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026? | Binary |
| 17.259 | 99.8% | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 17.168 | 98.0% | What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 16.947 | 54.6% | What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? | Continuous |
| 16.804 | 65.1% | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 16.281 | 87.0% | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 16.197 | 65.4% | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 15.955 | 45.0% | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 15.934 | 80.3% | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.589 | 44.5% | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 15.298 | 25.4% | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 15.228 | 69.8% | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) | Continuous |
| 14.644 | 64.1% | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 14.488 | 65.4% | How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 14.199 | 67.5% | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 14.058 | 99.6% | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries) | Binary |
| 13.983 | 100.0% | Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.823 | 68.8% | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.751 | 66.4% | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 13.702 | 68.9% | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.637 | 66.4% | What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 13.318 | 57.4% | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 13.260 | 25.9% | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 13.222 | 66.0% | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 13.120 | 21.4% | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 12.974 | 100.0% | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026? | Binary |
| 12.872 | 60.7% | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.490 | 91.8% | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.488 | 76.1% | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 12.315 | 27.2% | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 11.751 | 64.4% | What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 11.637 | 64.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 11.458 | 65.6% | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 11.338 | 35.5% | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 11.181 | 38.2% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 11.101 | 83.8% | Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026? | Binary |
| 11.006 | 20.1% | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 10.992 | 65.4% | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 10.768 | 100.0% | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025? | Binary |
| 10.706 | 63.2% | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| 10.461 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 10.325 | 23.5% | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 10.302 | 23.2% | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 10.150 | 100.0% | Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025? | Binary |
| 10.022 | 20.5% | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 9.802 | 66.4% | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 9.684 | 99.7% | Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025? | Binary |
| 9.683 | 86.9% | How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025? | Continuous |
| 9.419 | 43.7% | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 9.372 | 44.1% | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.253 | 63.2% | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| 9.057 | 69.8% | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) | Continuous |
| 8.902 | 83.8% | Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.812 | 80.8% | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.720 | 98.0% | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 8.652 | 44.6% | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.568 | 56.4% | What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)? | Continuous |
| 8.066 | 55.9% | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 8.000 | 100.0% | Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025? | Binary |
| 7.900 | 66.8% | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 7.807 | 72.1% | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 7.744 | 67.3% | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 7.728 | 38.9% | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.682 | 50.0% | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 7.480 | 29.8% | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.389 | 44.3% | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 7.356 | 62.3% | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 7.298 | 66.2% | What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 7.203 | 90.8% | What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 7.186 | 54.9% | How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 7.111 | 57.6% | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 6.953 | 70.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 6.934 | 26.9% | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| 6.871 | 99.6% | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses) | Binary |
| 6.726 | 32.9% | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.595 | 31.6% | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 6.476 | 52.1% | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 5.963 | 22.8% | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.804 | 69.0% | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 5.748 | 69.8% | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green) | Continuous |
| 5.662 | 39.9% | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.646 | 42.6% | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.378 | 55.2% | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 5.346 | 99.8% | Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.184 | 29.7% | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 5.098 | 10.5% | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 4.774 | 20.0% | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 4.739 | 54.4% | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 4.597 | 80.8% | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 4.567 | 25.5% | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 4.306 | 25.6% | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.256 | 56.0% | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 4.251 | 49.2% | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.208 | 75.7% | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.055 | 81.1% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 3.985 | 68.2% | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.431 | 99.6% | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.425 | 18.7% | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.358 | 26.6% | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.342 | 41.3% | Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.337 | 69.8% | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward) | Continuous |
| 3.298 | 36.4% | If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 3.276 | 39.1% | How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States? | Continuous |
| 3.133 | 35.2% | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 3.009 | 49.4% | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 2.938 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 2.906 | 42.7% | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.729 | 40.6% | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2024) | Continuous |
| 2.550 | 84.9% | Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.455 | 35.8% | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 2.424 | 99.3% | What will be the mean inflation adjusted annual wage of software developers in the United States in the following years using May 2023 dollars? (2024) | Continuous |
| 2.399 | 67.6% | How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? | Continuous |
| 2.368 | 31.8% | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 2.278 | 63.8% | How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 2.275 | 70.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 2.106 | 39.6% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 2.064 | 81.1% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 2.028 | 47.7% | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 1.925 | 65.0% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 1.908 | 93.8% | Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.892 | 70.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 1.766 | 99.9% | Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.731 | 70.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 1.728 | 41.7% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 1.698 | 69.8% | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian) | Continuous |
| 1.690 | 99.9% | Will Bud Light cease production by 2026? | Binary |
| 1.598 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 1.584 | 63.2% | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 1.567 | 96.8% | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 1.477 | 69.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 1.469 | 6.8% | How many dollars' worth of security assistance will the U.S. direct to Ukraine's military from Congress's Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative and Foreign Military Financing programs in FY 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.438 | 58.3% | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 1.431 | 40.6% | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 1.408 | 60.8% | How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 1.371 | 99.8% | Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.327 | 47.7% | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 1.302 | 42.4% | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 1.290 | 5.4% | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.238 | 11.0% | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 1.238 | 17.2% | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 1.231 | 66.1% | Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.177 | 69.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 1.127 | 77.0% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 1.121 | 70.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 1.028 | 28.5% | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 1.022 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 1.006 | 12.1% | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.823 | 70.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 0.781 | 3.7% | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 0.754 | 65.0% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 0.740 | 63.2% | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 0.735 | 48.7% | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 0.661 | 81.1% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 0.652 | 1.5% | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 0.635 | 81.1% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 0.607 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 0.603 | 95.1% | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States) | Binary |
| 0.588 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 0.575 | 41.7% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 0.525 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 0.507 | 63.2% | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 0.506 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 0.477 | 1.2% | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.418 | 0.6% | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.408 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 0.351 | 3.1% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin) | Continuous |
| 0.319 | 41.7% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 0.283 | 63.2% | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 0.273 | 1.1% | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.264 | 6.7% | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.239 | 3.1% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP) | Continuous |
| 0.226 | 68.8% | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.204 | 0.3% | When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine? | Continuous |
| 0.169 | 0.2% | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 0.118 | 43.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 0.091 | 2.0% | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.090 | 5.1% | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 0.083 | 3.1% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 0.061 | 81.1% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 0.037 | 3.1% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru) | Continuous |
| 0.026 | 1.4% | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.020 | 3.1% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP) | Continuous |
| 0.012 | 5.1% | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 0.009 | 5.1% | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 0.009 | 0.0% | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| -0.002 | 3.1% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| -0.003 | 5.1% | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| -0.003 | 5.1% | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| -0.045 | 72.0% | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -0.148 | 3.1% | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| -0.193 | 100.0% | Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.228 | 44.4% | When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? | Continuous |
| -0.251 | 6.5% | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| -0.355 | 18.0% | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| -0.405 | 64.4% | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -0.626 | 99.5% | Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.674 | 41.4% | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| -0.920 | 49.4% | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| -1.131 | 30.4% | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| -1.167 | 80.2% | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| -1.354 | 73.6% | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -1.389 | 3.5% | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| -1.453 | 65.4% | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -1.475 | 16.1% | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -1.930 | 56.3% | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| -2.022 | 65.7% | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| -2.740 | 31.7% | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| -2.834 | 56.8% | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| -2.903 | 100.0% | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026? | Binary |
| -3.741 | 31.7% | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| -3.807 | 46.7% | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -4.028 | 81.1% | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| -4.423 | 68.8% | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -6.082 | 62.3% | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| -6.354 | 100.0% | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026? | Binary |
| -6.621 | 95.1% | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| -6.647 | 42.3% | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| -7.147 | 99.6% | Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026? | Binary |
| -7.996 | 56.6% | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| -8.074 | 55.3% | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| -9.165 | 56.6% | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| -9.316 | 37.9% | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| -9.614 | 15.5% | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -10.062 | 41.3% | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| -10.830 | 74.7% | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| -11.123 | 100.0% | Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| -12.995 | 58.9% | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| -15.748 | 78.3% | Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -19.978 | 98.8% | Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| -20.168 | 45.0% | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -20.475 | 99.8% | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026? | Binary |
| -21.136 | 39.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -23.399 | 99.5% | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| -27.783 | 66.5% | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -29.728 | 47.3% | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -30.140 | 97.9% | How many months in prison will Andrew Tate be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| -30.305 | 91.5% | How many infants will New Incentives' childhood vaccination program reach by the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| -50.289 | 99.6% | Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing) | Binary |