DavidNash

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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30		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
132.370	96.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
128.256	95.9%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
112.866	80.3%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
104.209	71.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
94.518	82.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
91.497	96.0%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
85.095	84.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
80.093	97.4%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
76.770	41.9%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
72.784	72.0%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
66.745	69.8%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
64.589	81.1%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
63.679	63.8%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
63.121	96.5%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
61.967	91.9%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
61.020	71.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
59.533	96.5%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
56.398	71.3%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
55.555	80.6%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.336	82.3%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
53.264	47.2%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
53.034	42.4%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
52.528	79.0%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.054	92.7%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
49.806	71.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
48.924	61.8%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
47.680	90.9%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
47.527	40.9%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
46.592	87.4%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
42.079	82.8%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
37.253	63.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
36.786	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
36.076	56.3%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
34.547	83.0%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
33.963	72.6%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
33.447	95.9%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
32.849	94.9%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
32.436	84.9%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
31.920	79.0%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
31.789	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
31.541	71.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
28.016	81.2%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
27.161	37.4%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
26.512	65.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
25.786	84.9%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
24.957	85.4%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
24.589	79.6%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
23.667	62.0%	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
23.509	86.3%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
23.313	23.5%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
23.202	49.9%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
23.172	97.3%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
22.478	95.0%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
22.255	89.6%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
21.331	91.6%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
20.160	56.6%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
19.754	22.2%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
19.619	37.7%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
19.453	96.0%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
19.369	72.9%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
19.310	41.6%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
19.252	73.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
19.016	82.4%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
18.852	53.5%	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
17.896	87.4%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
17.585	53.5%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
17.293	96.8%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
17.254	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
16.850	47.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
15.745	71.1%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
15.676	50.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
15.300	70.3%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
15.264	58.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
15.027	82.5%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
14.897	41.9%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
14.641	50.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
14.379	57.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
14.183	50.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
13.987	27.9%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.925	75.2%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
13.892	81.2%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
13.537	79.5%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
13.406	57.2%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
11.778	82.5%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
11.350	97.3%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
10.438	97.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
10.307	97.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
9.979	23.0%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
9.865	65.1%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
8.958	34.5%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
8.704	14.8%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
8.690	20.9%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
8.420	35.3%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
8.285	96.4%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
7.604	47.0%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
7.596	14.3%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
7.551	25.7%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
7.419	69.1%	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
7.345	13.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.248	30.5%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
7.119	18.4%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
6.908	93.2%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
6.884	37.4%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
6.802	61.2%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
6.741	21.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
6.670	82.3%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
6.666	55.4%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
5.952	72.1%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
5.667	21.1%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
5.573	18.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
5.282	95.9%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
5.196	86.3%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
4.958	34.3%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
4.606	81.3%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
4.295	18.4%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
4.248	21.6%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
4.134	29.6%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
3.991	42.9%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
3.918	21.6%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
3.860	12.0%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
3.568	16.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
3.537	85.0%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
3.406	18.4%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
3.383	21.6%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
3.369	16.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
3.356	18.4%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
3.288	16.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
2.982	94.6%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
2.759	6.7%	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
1.961	16.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
1.016	5.5%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
0.861	18.4%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
0.532	2.8%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
0.328	8.2%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
0.223	11.1%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-0.103	82.4%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
-0.135	21.6%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-0.184	9.6%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
-0.267	37.7%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-0.376	7.4%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-0.570	9.5%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-1.519	96.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
-2.480	18.4%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-2.671	85.0%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-3.349	28.8%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
-3.461	9.5%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-3.475	8.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-4.742	96.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
-5.319	18.4%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-6.212	84.9%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
-6.570	19.9%	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
-7.171	97.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
-7.630	98.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-9.034	96.3%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
-17.331	26.8%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-17.440	20.9%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-18.239	33.1%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
-20.297	94.8%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-20.898	97.9%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
-26.841	88.9%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
-35.728	96.6%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-41.498	95.3%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-50.294	74.8%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-59.791	42.1%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-68.853	82.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-89.014	94.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous