MacroMarkets

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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26.34		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
115.436	79.0%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
109.227	97.6%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
96.213	95.2%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
91.056	81.2%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
88.663	82.8%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
83.710	94.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
82.390	62.6%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
82.342	77.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
77.643	87.2%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
76.446	87.9%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
71.276	84.8%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
65.154	87.2%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
63.513	85.2%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
58.591	96.1%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
58.558	89.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
56.895	70.6%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
55.188	89.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
55.103	89.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
51.594	83.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
49.237	79.0%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
49.083	71.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
48.755	83.1%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
47.063	95.2%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
46.429	96.5%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
45.888	77.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
45.553	86.5%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
44.619	78.7%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
43.969	69.8%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
41.714	97.5%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
41.574	90.6%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
40.368	67.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
38.166	93.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
36.666	74.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
36.630	84.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
35.441	91.0%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
34.500	56.7%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
33.077	96.0%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
33.021	86.2%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
31.251	97.5%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
30.827	84.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
30.675	67.0%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
30.384	95.1%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
30.313	83.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
30.056	95.1%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
29.405	84.5%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
29.300	84.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
29.101	62.7%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
28.147	77.4%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
23.623	97.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
22.400	74.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
22.144	82.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
21.815	95.5%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
21.674	69.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
21.230	74.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
20.747	87.7%	Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?	Binary
20.704	48.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
20.405	62.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
19.963	57.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
19.521	59.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
19.417	57.2%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
18.977	74.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
18.710	59.5%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
18.471	87.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
18.060	72.2%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
17.357	66.2%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
17.059	96.2%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
16.886	75.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
16.733	68.4%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
16.372	89.0%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
15.973	76.5%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
15.949	79.3%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
15.606	31.2%	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for overtime income in tax year 2026?	Binary
15.263	82.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
15.243	69.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
15.183	76.5%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
14.909	68.2%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
14.753	67.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
14.356	53.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
13.666	66.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
12.503	68.4%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
12.434	25.1%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
12.227	86.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
12.211	70.1%	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
11.933	63.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
11.855	97.5%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
11.690	30.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
11.632	82.3%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
11.303	47.5%	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.299	63.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
11.128	69.6%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
10.834	92.5%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
10.705	13.2%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
10.390	15.8%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
9.809	32.0%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
9.754	73.0%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
9.720	26.1%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
9.487	15.6%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
9.154	51.9%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
8.517	63.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
8.241	14.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.211	19.1%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
6.830	26.1%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
6.527	19.0%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
6.274	33.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
5.596	14.6%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
4.982	16.7%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
4.904	89.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
4.778	49.2%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
4.180	42.8%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
4.070	89.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
3.993	38.4%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
3.980	19.0%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
3.962	14.5%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
3.348	63.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
3.256	63.5%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
2.847	91.8%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
2.520	89.3%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
2.171	58.0%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
2.130	9.6%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
1.996	55.8%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
1.362	25.6%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
1.347	6.9%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
1.249	4.7%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
1.043	7.2%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
1.010	6.5%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
0.812	23.1%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
0.712	7.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
0.683	7.2%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
0.674	6.5%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
0.439	31.2%	Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?	Binary
0.281	14.8%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
0.221	76.5%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
0.083	68.7%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
-0.126	6.2%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
-0.856	68.4%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
-0.982	97.5%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-1.553	35.8%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
-1.866	30.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-2.796	11.9%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
-2.888	30.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-2.902	26.8%	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
-2.983	6.4%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
-3.010	73.6%	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
-3.573	30.4%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-3.681	97.5%	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-5.352	85.6%	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
-5.672	84.6%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-5.751	98.7%	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
-13.371	76.5%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-15.635	89.6%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
-16.945	33.8%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-18.049	85.0%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
-34.211	58.9%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
-34.932	96.3%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-48.870	97.5%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-50.173	58.2%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-56.808	97.5%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-90.382	91.9%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-271.782	97.1%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice