sk100001

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

15.55		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
127.688	95.0%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
118.066	99.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
118.024	90.8%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
112.619	86.5%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
99.365	97.2%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
99.239	87.8%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
98.938	100.0%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
87.876	80.3%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
86.305	73.1%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
85.541	87.6%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
80.978	87.1%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
75.306	86.4%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
71.851	89.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
70.851	92.6%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
70.333	96.9%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
67.250	97.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
62.492	73.1%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
62.217	76.1%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
60.924	61.9%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
60.728	86.6%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
58.833	88.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
56.676	53.8%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
53.552	66.7%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
52.985	97.0%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
52.514	95.3%	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
52.254	92.4%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
49.660	99.6%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
49.544	99.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
48.482	92.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
46.645	80.9%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
45.197	99.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
41.611	92.0%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
41.304	54.3%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
40.497	89.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
39.042	92.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
38.288	74.8%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
37.723	72.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
37.321	89.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
37.294	90.8%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
33.416	97.3%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
33.219	99.9%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
32.239	97.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
32.207	90.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
30.686	99.9%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
30.544	99.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
29.994	97.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
29.905	92.8%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
28.570	96.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
27.812	78.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
27.308	56.7%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
26.956	94.8%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
25.846	99.8%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
25.737	78.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
25.614	95.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
24.694	74.5%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
23.933	78.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
23.125	98.8%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
22.146	97.2%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
21.932	91.0%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
21.242	88.7%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
20.747	97.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
20.746	88.7%	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
18.725	79.8%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
18.551	97.0%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
18.406	96.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
17.931	89.3%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
17.463	99.1%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
14.517	91.7%	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
14.439	85.9%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
13.692	92.3%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
13.188	98.9%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
12.566	99.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
11.864	86.1%	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
11.807	93.9%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
10.722	97.2%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
8.817	76.4%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
7.742	73.9%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
7.517	97.0%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
6.708	10.9%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
6.485	99.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
6.044	69.7%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
5.397	72.7%	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
5.009	9.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
4.308	41.4%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
2.022	94.0%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
1.031	4.3%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
0.513	0.3%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
0.407	0.9%	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
0.014	0.1%	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
-0.155	9.1%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
-0.500	96.2%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
-1.413	88.8%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
-1.995	1.6%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
-2.017	81.6%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
-3.293	50.5%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
-3.896	95.1%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
-4.164	82.9%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
-4.864	97.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
-6.232	60.3%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-6.271	94.8%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-6.748	37.8%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-7.472	99.8%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-8.687	63.2%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-8.965	93.6%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
-11.717	85.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
-12.310	96.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
-14.616	84.7%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
-14.790	90.7%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
-16.420	97.2%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-18.272	99.9%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
-18.673	90.5%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-19.388	97.1%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-19.401	95.5%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
-20.663	98.5%	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
-22.522	89.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-23.542	75.0%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
-24.622	97.1%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-25.516	32.8%	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-25.648	35.7%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-28.870	100.0%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-33.898	76.5%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-38.538	99.9%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-40.310	86.9%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-43.957	96.1%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-43.994	99.8%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
-46.154	90.1%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
-51.677	95.9%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
-60.533	99.9%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
-65.083	85.6%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
-70.156	80.7%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
-71.828	69.5%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-72.962	94.8%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-76.922	95.2%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
-86.102	65.2%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-88.115	94.8%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-93.154	100.0%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-153.001	95.2%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-208.177	95.2%	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous