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How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market?

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

resultNo

Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?

result2

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

resultYes

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%chance

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

resultYes

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

resultNo

What will be the combined annual revenue of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?

Annulled

What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?

resultLess than 700