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Respiratory Outlook October Update: Forecasts for Flu, COVID-19, RSV, and Measles This Season
6
0
comments
Respiratory Outlook 2025/26
10
comments
8
forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?
15%
chance
10
comments
17
forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?
RSV
3.49
Flu
9.81
COVID-19
3.85
1 other
8
comments
74
forecasters
How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?
Current estimate
35.5k deaths
2
comments
65
forecasters
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
45%
chance
5%
this week
9
comments
29
forecasters
When will the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern be declared by the WHO?
community
04 Oct 2022
result
23 Jul 2022 10:11
condition
Will USDA license HPAI H5 vax in dairy cows by July 1, 2025?
Resolved:
No
17
forecasters
if yes
if no
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
124
Resolved:
Annulled
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
144
13
13
comments
17
17
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
12
comments
51
forecasters
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?
community
848k
result
231k
condition
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
24
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
13%
13%
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
0%
0%
7
7
comments
24
24
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
49
comments
76
forecasters
Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?
result
No
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