Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC411 comment
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?10% chance51010 comments5656 forecasters10%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.1% chance52020 comments106106 forecasters0.1%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6060 forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?20% chance122 comments1919 forecasters20%chance
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?5% chance31212 comments2323 forecasters5%chance
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?result: no58113113 comments589589 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?result: no8787 comments7878 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?result: no71212 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?10 comments2020 forecasters
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?1010 comments2121 forecasters