Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?2% chance399 comments2121 forecasters2%chance
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?8% chance51010 comments5858 forecasters8%chance
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?Apr 2032 (24 Jun 2030 - >Jan 2040)322 comments1717 forecastersApr 2032 (24 Jun 2030 - >Jan 2040)
Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?result: yes788 comments4848 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?25% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters25%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.1% chance52020 comments118118 forecasters0.1%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?18% chance122 comments2020 forecasters18%chance
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?result: no8787 comments7878 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?result: no121212 comments9191 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?result: no71212 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?10 comments2020 forecasters
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?Ambiguous744 comments4242 forecastersAmbiguous