Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC411 comment
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?10% chance51010 comments5656 forecasters10%chance
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?result: no58113113 comments589589 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22.8% chance332727 comments228228 forecasters22.8%chance
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?5% chance31212 comments2323 forecasters5%chance
Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?result: no2977 comments132132 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?result: no455 comments155155 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?result: no322 comments6666 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?result: no1211 comment8181 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?result: no911 comment7676 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?5% chance433434 comments301301 forecasters5%chance
Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard?result: no333 comments6464 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?result: no233 comments101101 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?result: no944 comments8383 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2525 forecasters1%chance
When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?32424 comments2222 forecasters