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Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

10% this week

5 comments

38 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

45%chance

10% this week

7 comments

33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%

Estonia30%

Poland30%

9 comments

109 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%

Saudi Arabia14%

South Korea7%

21 comments

73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2.5%

Japan1%

3 comments

82 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

6%chance

3% this week

20 comments

76 forecasters

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

12%chance

7 comments

36 forecasters

What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?

Current estimate

7.36

82 comments

159 forecasters

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria80%

Haiti74%

Mali61%

condition

46 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

What will Poland's Economist Democracy Index be in 2030?

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?