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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

19%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

14%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea2.5%

Saudi Arabia1.5%

Poland1%

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

5 comments

93 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

3%chance

Key Factors

62 comments

389 forecasters

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

0.5%chance

5 comments

38 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

8 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 1 comment

8 forecasters

5 comments

48 forecasters

Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?

50%chance

3 comments

60 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

2%chance