How will the countries that participated in the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad rank in the 2026 IMO?155 comments77 forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?81616 comments1515 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?51% chance111010 comments5959 forecasters51%chance
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?26 Aug 2030 (15 Jul 2028 - Aug 2035)41212 comments1616 forecasters26 Aug 2030 (15 Jul 2028 - Aug 2035)
Will Belarus become a EU candidate country before 2030?0.1% chance744 comments8181 forecasters0.1%chance
Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?1% chance92323 comments174174 forecasters1%chance
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?66.7% chance311 comment5454 forecasters66.7%chance
Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?3.3% chance566 comments111111 forecasters3.3%chance
Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?4% chance435757 comments291291 forecasters4%chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) → Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?11 comment99 forecasters
NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?444 comments4848 forecasters
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?1177 comments3838 forecasters
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?13% chance52020 comments8080 forecasters13%chance
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?318383 comments166166 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?87% chance52727 comments5959 forecasters87%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?10% chance355252 comments296296 forecasters10%chance
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments314314 forecasters
Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050?466 comments2222 forecasters
If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?39.4 ° (25.7 - 54.2)181414 comments6363 forecasters39.4 ° (25.7 - 54.2)
What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?120 (108 - 128)62929 comments3232 forecasters120 (108 - 128)