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Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
1 comment1
Ukraine Conflict

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine

no comments0

Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?

resultNo

Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?

Annulled

Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?

Ambiguous

Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

resultNo

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?

resultYes

Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?

resultNo

If Kyiv falls in 2022, when will it happen?

Ambiguous