stanulamstan

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.504	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
60.740	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
55.286	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
47.875	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
40.061	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
34.170	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
24.566	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
22.388	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
19.869	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
19.674	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
18.565	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.255	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
17.684	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
16.855	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
16.565	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
16.563	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
16.533	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.749	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
15.397	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.348	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
14.043	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
13.220	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.809	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
12.465	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
12.127	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.286	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
11.110	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
11.044	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
11.027	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.008	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
10.412	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
10.325	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
10.322	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
9.893	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
9.773	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.992	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
8.837	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
8.718	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
8.697	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
8.593	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
7.981	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
7.821	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
7.588	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.451	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
7.067	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
6.601	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
6.438	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
6.311	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
6.226	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.226	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
5.994	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
5.951	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
5.923	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
5.877	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
5.749	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.514	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.336	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.186	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
5.182	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
5.098	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
4.922	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
4.782	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.701	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
4.439	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
4.086	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
3.117	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.319	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
2.190	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
2.105	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
2.030	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.001	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
1.896	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
1.716	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
1.264	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.108	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
1.105	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
0.782	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
0.649	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
0.401	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-1.004	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
-1.097	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-2.696	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
-8.471	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-9.019	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-9.832	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-10.642	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-17.070	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-17.715	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
-22.688	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-36.011	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-49.210	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
-99.669	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary