bzial

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

4.64k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
118.578	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
98.005	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
97.417	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
94.539	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
93.950	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
93.287	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
90.754	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
90.109	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
86.067	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
85.583	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
85.204	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
85.167	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
85.145	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
84.577	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
84.316	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
83.685	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
83.220	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
83.170	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
82.575	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
82.515	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
82.380	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
81.775	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
81.074	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
79.066	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
78.879	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
78.138	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
77.784	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
77.757	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
77.248	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
77.064	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
77.023	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
76.810	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
75.115	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
74.739	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
74.594	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
74.440	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
73.695	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
73.645	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
73.360	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
73.004	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
72.800	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
72.760	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
72.170	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
71.514	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
70.044	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
69.406	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
68.857	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
68.834	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
67.190	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
67.190	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
66.496	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
64.825	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
63.542	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
63.504	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
62.923	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
62.063	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
61.466	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
60.040	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
58.724	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
58.478	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
58.110	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
58.076	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
58.014	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
57.039	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
56.932	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
55.345	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
55.335	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
53.518	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
53.237	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
49.432	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
48.744	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
48.722	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
48.374	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
48.331	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
47.945	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
47.687	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
46.609	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
45.832	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
45.618	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
45.554	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
45.181	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
44.517	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
44.497	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
43.030	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
39.152	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
38.418	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
38.281	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
37.918	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
37.847	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
34.102	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
34.091	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
31.079	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
29.993	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
27.854	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
26.737	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
26.690	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
26.682	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
26.248	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
26.226	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
25.835	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
25.299	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
21.789	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
21.224	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
19.044	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
16.551	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
15.364	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
15.233	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
14.340	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
13.924	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
13.601	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
11.732	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
8.695	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
8.400	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
8.389	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
6.720	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
5.902	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
5.625	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
3.969	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
3.440	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
2.678	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
2.479	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
2.466	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-0.609	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
-1.284	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-1.839	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-2.135	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
-8.011	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-9.546	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-14.358	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-14.820	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-15.847	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-18.741	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-25.427	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-27.927	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
-29.484	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
-33.365	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-34.323	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-38.753	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-40.843	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-49.991	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-71.895	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-84.476	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-97.402	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-117.744	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-126.714	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-129.540	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-135.987	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-150.967	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-154.663	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-173.607	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-174.097	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-183.608	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary