Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

9974	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
139.048	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Continuous
108.015	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024)	Continuous
105.774	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris)	Continuous
99.700	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington)	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma)	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
99.070	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California)	Binary
98.883	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
98.860	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
98.417	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
97.851	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
97.465	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
97.309	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
97.249	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
97.235	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
96.691	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
96.240	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
95.189	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
94.906	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024)	Continuous
94.794	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
94.598	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
94.513	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
94.207	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
93.883	Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?	Binary
93.449	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
93.120	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
92.148	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
92.115	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri)	Binary
91.981	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
91.615	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
91.423	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey)	Binary
91.263	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
91.051	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida)	Binary
91.012	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
90.778	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
90.698	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
90.670	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland)	Binary
90.477	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
90.348	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
90.314	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
90.251	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
90.235	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas)	Binary
89.542	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
89.203	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
88.756	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
88.727	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
88.237	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024)	Continuous
88.205	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
85.682	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
85.331	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I))	Binary
84.766	2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
84.528	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
84.302	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
83.981	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.400	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
83.358	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
82.970	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
82.828	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan)	Continuous
82.601	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
82.338	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
82.063	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
81.286	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
81.231	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
80.804	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
80.623	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
78.600	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
78.543	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
78.381	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
76.529	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
76.497	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
75.697	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
75.498	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
74.171	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
72.900	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
72.360	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio)	Continuous
71.169	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
70.970	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
70.775	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
69.900	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
69.031	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
68.388	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
67.569	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
65.463	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina)	Continuous
65.230	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
64.081	Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
63.960	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
63.905	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
63.147	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
62.428	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
62.390	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
62.342	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada)	Continuous
62.193	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia)	Continuous
61.585	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
61.369	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin)	Continuous
61.126	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
61.080	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
61.054	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
61.054	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
60.050	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona)	Continuous
59.790	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
59.457	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire)	Continuous
59.316	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico)	Continuous
59.067	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
58.002	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
57.057	Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
56.392	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
55.150	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
54.765	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
52.238	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota)	Continuous
51.987	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa)	Continuous
51.531	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-24)	Continuous
51.111	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands)	Binary
50.186	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine)	Binary
49.993	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia)	Binary
49.685	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland)	Binary
49.655	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Iceland)	Binary
49.579	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
48.622	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
48.236	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia)	Continuous
46.756	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware)	Continuous
44.945	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Malta)	Binary
44.610	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois)	Continuous
44.345	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
43.976	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
43.808	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska)	Continuous
42.999	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland)	Binary
42.438	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Israel)	Binary
42.379	What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?	Multiple Choice
41.601	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
41.155	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
41.041	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Moldova)	Binary
40.087	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Austria)	Binary
39.288	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Norway)	Binary
39.000	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Armenia)	Binary
38.586	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
37.732	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Czechia)	Binary
37.466	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
37.252	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (San Marino)	Binary
37.237	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece)	Binary
36.953	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
36.696	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York)	Continuous
36.529	What will the number of votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election be?	Continuous
35.557	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Lithuania)	Binary
32.874	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon)	Continuous
32.239	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
31.617	After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus?	Multiple Choice
31.474	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
31.037	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Slovenia)	Binary
29.771	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey)	Continuous
29.624	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado)	Continuous
28.736	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
27.443	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
27.373	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona)	Binary
26.799	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-24)	Continuous
26.794	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
25.597	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
23.189	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
21.776	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
21.523	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024)	Continuous
19.385	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
19.269	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
19.199	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district)	Continuous
19.071	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
17.609	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?	Binary
17.397	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
17.341	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
16.593	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024)	Continuous
14.521	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Georgia)	Binary
13.772	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan)	Binary
9.505	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
9.405	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
9.280	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
8.232	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
7.632	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
7.271	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
6.790	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide))	Continuous
6.419	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
2.667	Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
2.303	RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
2.180	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state))	Continuous
1.625	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida)	Continuous
-1.729	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-4.470	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
-5.955	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-6.391	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Albania)	Binary
-6.891	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-7.974	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
-11.219	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
-13.776	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-14.427	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Azerbaijan)	Binary
-15.644	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Australia)	Binary
-15.827	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Cyprus)	Binary
-16.228	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
-18.574	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Serbia)	Binary
-20.153	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-20.926	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-21.848	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
-23.891	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas)	Continuous
-24.766	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Estonia)	Binary
-35.190	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Luxembourg)	Binary
-35.910	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-38.932	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ireland)	Binary
-43.911	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Denmark)	Binary
-49.338	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
-50.938	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-51.742	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-63.081	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024)	Continuous
-67.451	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium)	Binary
-73.070	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Poland)	Binary
-73.455	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-95.132	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Portugal)	Binary
-105.112	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-112.206	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Latvia)	Binary
-147.898	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-157.712	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-193.537	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary