Skerry

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

4250	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
141.909	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
123.397	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
115.866	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
103.200	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
102.468	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
100.362	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
100.160	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
95.719	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
94.587	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
92.938	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
92.760	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
92.217	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
91.555	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
90.636	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
89.877	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
89.629	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
87.717	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
87.267	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
87.219	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
87.094	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
86.895	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
86.732	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
85.960	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
85.559	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
85.080	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
85.055	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
84.948	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
84.209	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
82.487	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
81.967	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
81.682	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
80.716	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
80.522	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
78.909	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
78.138	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
77.873	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
77.811	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
77.193	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
76.762	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
76.570	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
76.515	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
75.622	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
75.361	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
74.941	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
74.695	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
74.064	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
71.678	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
71.005	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
70.152	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
68.967	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
68.775	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
67.798	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
66.924	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
65.510	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
64.468	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
64.005	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
63.659	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
60.150	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
60.144	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
59.311	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
59.128	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
58.149	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
57.309	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
56.534	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
55.792	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
52.988	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
52.813	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
50.544	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
50.476	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
50.286	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
49.476	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
48.624	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
48.481	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
48.118	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
47.585	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
46.539	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
45.304	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
45.104	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
43.037	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
41.213	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
39.768	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
39.385	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
37.865	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
34.827	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
34.141	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
33.444	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
33.325	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
32.758	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
31.395	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
31.056	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
30.906	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
30.205	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
30.077	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
29.972	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
28.461	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
27.179	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
26.985	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
25.965	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
24.944	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
24.061	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
23.212	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
21.281	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
20.360	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
17.385	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
16.741	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
15.304	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
15.291	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
14.898	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
14.668	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
13.813	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
8.608	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
8.484	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
8.480	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
6.972	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
6.804	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
6.720	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
6.270	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
5.965	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
5.139	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
2.944	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
1.880	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
-0.591	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-1.548	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-3.052	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
-3.158	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
-3.255	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-3.588	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
-3.887	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-4.680	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-5.792	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
-6.958	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-8.881	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
-9.120	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-9.607	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
-11.545	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-11.707	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-12.275	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
-13.958	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-15.009	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
-17.267	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
-20.170	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-21.689	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-25.812	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-28.185	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-32.212	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
-32.253	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-33.460	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-34.274	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-36.155	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
-42.969	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-59.402	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-61.683	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-64.713	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-65.384	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-73.310	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-78.512	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-78.764	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-102.349	In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?	Binary
-105.290	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-120.391	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-145.424	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-206.286	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-283.178	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-330.778	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary
-502.944	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary