thee

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.474k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
75.873	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
69.909	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
65.289	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
60.236	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
58.368	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
55.070	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
54.824	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
53.030	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
46.449	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
45.635	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
44.963	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
44.210	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
42.670	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
42.067	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
40.574	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
39.740	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
38.754	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
33.236	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
32.299	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
32.036	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
31.953	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
31.520	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
30.655	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
30.035	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
29.851	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
29.325	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
29.034	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
28.212	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
27.857	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
27.166	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
27.155	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
26.873	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
26.025	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
25.273	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
25.019	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
24.347	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
24.142	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
23.627	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
22.432	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
20.049	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
19.978	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
18.792	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
18.499	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
17.169	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
15.869	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
14.627	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
12.821	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
12.604	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
12.303	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
12.115	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
12.091	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
11.878	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
11.638	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
11.302	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
11.208	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
10.406	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
9.189	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
7.747	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
7.611	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
7.583	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
7.389	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
7.363	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
6.191	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
5.974	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
5.562	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
4.033	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
3.077	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
3.072	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
2.356	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
2.303	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
2.100	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
1.798	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
1.441	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
1.381	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
1.312	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
0.388	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
0.234	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
-1.194	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-2.588	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
-3.437	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-3.478	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-5.364	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-7.215	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-8.444	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-8.606	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-16.479	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-17.798	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-18.052	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-30.137	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-45.935	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-51.428	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-132.697	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous