Sergio

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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16.55k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
197.241	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
186.714	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
160.883	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
160.572	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
136.008	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
133.801	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
132.350	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
131.926	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
130.779	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
124.459	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
122.797	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
121.921	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
120.668	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
116.641	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
115.167	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
114.430	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
110.885	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
107.972	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
106.200	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
104.824	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
103.457	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
102.775	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
101.517	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
101.167	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
99.792	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
99.779	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
99.721	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
99.637	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
99.470	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
98.490	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
97.674	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
97.257	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
96.800	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
96.603	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
96.142	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
96.131	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
96.027	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
95.790	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
94.641	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
93.846	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
93.734	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
93.522	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
93.512	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
93.391	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.302	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
93.300	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
92.889	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
92.701	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
92.666	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
92.345	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
92.272	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
92.133	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
92.050	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
91.614	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
91.017	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
90.888	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
90.802	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
90.400	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
90.372	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
90.297	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
90.107	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
89.139	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
88.848	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
88.782	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
88.465	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
87.788	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
87.783	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
87.534	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
87.475	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
87.314	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
86.977	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
86.930	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
86.024	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
84.891	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
84.595	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
84.558	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
84.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
84.442	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
84.408	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
84.379	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
84.347	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
84.329	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
84.313	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
84.277	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
84.264	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
84.263	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
84.235	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
84.145	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
84.084	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
83.933	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
83.911	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
83.910	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
83.905	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
83.730	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
83.567	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
83.382	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
83.322	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
83.031	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
82.907	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
82.781	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
82.745	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
82.597	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
82.592	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
82.007	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
81.898	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
81.879	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
81.748	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
81.556	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
79.849	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
79.592	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
79.166	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.619	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
78.613	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
78.384	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
77.780	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
77.748	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
75.528	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
75.063	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
74.944	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
74.907	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
74.500	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
74.242	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
73.846	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
73.605	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
73.079	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
72.101	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
72.081	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
71.580	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
70.984	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (January 2023)	Continuous
70.363	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
69.593	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
68.578	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
68.292	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
67.722	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
67.634	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
67.557	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
67.149	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
66.723	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
65.052	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
64.465	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
64.422	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
63.594	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
62.289	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
61.969	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
61.235	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
60.783	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
60.640	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
58.211	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
57.800	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
57.204	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
57.173	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
57.092	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
56.839	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
55.401	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
54.884	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
54.599	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
54.483	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
53.982	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
53.648	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
53.281	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
53.231	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
53.136	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
52.864	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
52.653	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
51.899	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
51.741	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
51.445	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
51.094	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
50.832	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
49.647	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
48.873	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
47.725	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
47.681	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
47.385	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
47.292	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
47.090	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
46.967	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
46.571	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
46.551	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
46.341	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
46.287	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
45.975	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
45.299	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
44.696	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
44.545	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
44.208	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
43.949	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
42.981	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
42.836	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
42.545	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
42.411	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
42.396	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
42.196	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
41.533	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
40.996	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
40.698	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
40.549	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
40.477	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
40.402	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
40.043	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
39.123	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
39.111	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
38.694	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
38.658	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
38.625	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
38.416	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
38.322	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
38.246	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
38.189	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
38.064	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
37.969	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
37.910	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
37.713	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
37.457	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
36.930	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
36.323	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
35.933	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
35.821	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
35.690	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
35.670	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
35.101	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
34.834	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
34.285	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
34.285	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
33.760	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
33.568	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
32.932	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
32.596	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
31.566	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
31.502	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
31.471	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
30.862	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
29.858	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
29.805	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
29.772	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
29.736	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
29.603	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
29.561	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
29.244	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
28.903	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
28.651	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
27.083	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
25.825	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
25.258	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
24.904	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
24.899	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
24.265	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
24.009	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
23.273	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
23.142	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
22.217	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
22.075	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
21.486	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
21.277	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
21.107	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
21.076	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
20.509	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.967	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
17.246	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
16.357	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.246	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
15.080	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.791	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
13.712	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
13.386	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
13.333	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
12.675	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
12.435	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
12.023	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
11.540	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
11.060	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
10.666	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
10.480	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
9.400	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
9.206	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
9.055	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
8.079	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
7.837	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
7.459	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
7.135	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
6.959	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
6.099	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
5.083	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
4.739	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
3.607	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
2.851	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
2.522	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
2.108	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.977	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
0.227	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
0.227	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
-0.064	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-0.925	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
-1.072	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-2.212	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-3.354	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-3.977	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous
-4.820	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-7.079	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.060	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
-12.123	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
-13.178	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-16.021	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-17.453	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-17.464	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
-21.384	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-22.299	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
-34.088	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-37.277	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-39.242	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-41.791	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-46.196	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
-50.959	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
-55.761	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-55.936	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-58.960	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
-62.301	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-67.843	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-69.876	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-75.349	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-81.431	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-119.027	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-149.514	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-195.968	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary