followthesilence

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2946	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.761	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
83.118	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
82.806	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
77.616	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
75.019	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
72.700	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
72.663	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
70.182	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
68.097	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
65.498	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
65.169	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
63.885	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
61.096	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
60.976	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
60.160	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
59.003	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
56.998	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
55.230	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
54.898	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
52.763	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
52.336	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
52.064	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
51.602	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
50.116	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
49.990	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
49.336	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
49.274	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
48.771	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
48.566	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
48.276	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
48.020	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
46.970	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
46.965	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
46.155	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
44.965	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
44.211	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
44.047	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
43.453	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
43.181	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
41.802	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
41.434	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
40.620	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
40.193	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
39.936	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
39.088	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
38.906	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
38.906	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
38.898	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
36.542	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
36.426	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
36.198	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
34.945	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
33.112	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
32.567	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
32.408	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
31.897	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
31.782	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
31.574	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
31.272	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
31.108	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
30.811	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
30.236	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
30.054	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
29.959	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
29.953	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
29.942	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
29.640	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
28.831	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
28.337	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
28.068	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
27.813	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
26.158	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
25.677	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
25.132	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
24.470	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
23.993	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
22.571	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
21.968	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
21.740	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
21.126	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
20.980	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
20.011	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
19.530	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
18.822	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
17.449	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
17.329	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
17.259	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
17.180	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
17.002	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
15.849	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
15.719	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
15.679	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
15.553	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
15.515	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
15.261	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
14.395	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
14.057	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
13.659	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
12.149	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
12.030	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
11.261	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
10.707	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
10.119	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
9.728	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
9.728	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
9.728	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
9.400	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
9.186	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
9.051	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
8.682	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
7.543	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
6.757	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
6.134	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
5.990	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
5.113	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
4.201	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
3.806	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
3.805	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
3.649	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
3.558	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
3.499	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
3.499	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
3.189	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
3.023	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
2.542	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
2.095	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
2.095	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
2.095	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
2.094	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
2.094	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
1.985	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
1.983	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
1.979	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
1.731	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
1.316	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
1.053	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
0.597	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
0.440	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
0.401	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
0.397	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
0.283	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.266	How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?	Continuous
0.221	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
0.170	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
-0.096	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
-0.141	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-0.528	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
-1.747	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-1.851	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-2.568	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
-2.606	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.662	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-3.007	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
-6.521	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
-8.502	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-9.860	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-10.407	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-10.820	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-10.826	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
-13.918	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
-19.765	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
-21.720	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-23.572	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-29.192	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q2)	Continuous
-42.303	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-49.511	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
-55.708	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-65.120	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q4)	Continuous
-69.215	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-96.575	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q3)	Continuous
-109.024	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-123.771	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-322.165	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary