TheAGI

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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-558.8	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
85.894	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
84.150	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
84.106	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
81.151	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
79.978	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
79.890	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
79.890	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
78.564	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
78.129	Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?	Binary
76.133	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
75.942	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
74.678	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
71.856	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
71.762	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
70.762	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
69.825	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
68.922	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
67.918	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
67.291	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
65.345	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
63.105	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
61.521	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
61.035	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
59.538	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
57.752	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
57.751	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
57.476	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
56.695	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
56.656	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
56.389	Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?	Binary
55.733	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?	Binary
55.716	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
53.368	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
52.889	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
52.609	Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.288	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
50.534	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
49.928	Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?	Binary
49.928	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
49.928	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
49.795	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
48.420	Which team will win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off?	Multiple Choice
48.366	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
47.087	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
45.500	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
44.630	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
43.828	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
43.715	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
43.655	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
42.575	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
42.473	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
42.400	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
42.132	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
40.976	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
40.297	[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?	Binary
39.942	Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?	Binary
38.750	[Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025?	Binary
38.277	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
37.310	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
36.348	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
36.211	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
35.982	Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
35.339	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
33.904	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
33.357	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
33.179	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
32.037	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
31.145	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
30.491	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
29.957	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
29.957	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
27.563	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
27.123	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
27.040	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
25.975	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
24.923	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
24.855	What percentage of the Project 2025 Tracker will be complete on October 1, 2025?	Continuous
24.834	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
23.291	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
22.930	Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?	Binary
22.467	Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?	Binary
20.795	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
20.460	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
20.192	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
18.797	When will the Myanmar military junta collapse?	Multiple Choice
18.092	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Allegra Spender (6.8 v LIB in Wentworth, NSW))	Binary
18.092	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Andrew Wilkie (20.8 v ALP in Clark, TAS))	Binary
17.711	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
17.241	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
15.808	Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?	Binary
15.648	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
15.364	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Zali Steggall (9.4 v LIB in Warringah, NSW))	Binary
15.258	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.882	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
13.687	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
13.247	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Helen Haines (8.9 v LIB in Indi, VIC))	Binary
11.400	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
11.177	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
10.877	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
10.837	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
10.837	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
10.837	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
10.837	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
10.837	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
10.695	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
9.985	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
9.923	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
9.783	What will be the total number of forecasters in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
9.531	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Sophie Scamps (3.3 v LIB in Mackellar, NSW))	Binary
9.397	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
9.293	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
9.244	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
9.242	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
9.203	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
9.189	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
8.801	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
8.797	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
8.733	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
8.704	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
8.702	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
8.476	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
8.468	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
8.011	Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?	Binary
7.489	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
7.013	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
6.858	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Dai Le (1.1 v ALP in Fowler, NSW))	Binary
6.422	What percentage of games will end in a decisive result in the open section of the 2025 FIDE Grande Swiss ?	Continuous
6.388	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
6.019	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
5.776	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
5.273	What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election?	Continuous
5.232	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
5.155	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
5.092	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur during September 2025?	Multiple Choice
5.069	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
4.748	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
4.406	Which party will win the seat of Bullwinkel in the 2025 Australian Federal Election?	Multiple Choice
4.401	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
3.751	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
3.253	Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?	Binary
2.962	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Kate Chaney (1.3 v LIB in Curtin, WA))	Binary
2.012	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Monique Ryan (2.2 v LIB in Kooyong, VIC))	Binary
1.565	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
0.676	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
0.635	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
0.460	Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?	Binary
0.345	How many seats in the Canadian House of Commons will these parties win in the 2025 federal election? (Liberal)	Continuous
0.237	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
0.143	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)	Binary
0.089	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
0.085	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Kulman Ghising)	Binary
0.085	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Harka Raj Sampang Rai)	Binary
0.085	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Rabi Lamichhane)	Binary
0.083	Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.081	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.080	Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?	Binary
0.075	Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.062	Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?	Binary
0.061	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
0.053	Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?	Binary
0.049	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
0.045	Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.045	Will India surpass Germany in GDP by the end of 2025?	Binary
0.042	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.039	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
0.039	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
0.039	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
0.039	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
0.039	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
0.039	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
0.036	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
0.036	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
0.036	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
0.036	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
0.012	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Sushila Karki)	Binary
-	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-0.002	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Balendra Shah)	Binary
-0.348	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-2.251	Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?	Binary
-4.209	Who will win the 2025 Goldsmith Prize for Investigative Reporting?	Multiple Choice
-4.272	Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-4.477	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-5.207	Who will win the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 313?	Multiple Choice
-6.720	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
-7.799	Will any opposition legislator in Taiwan lose their recall election on August 23, 2025?	Binary
-7.999	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
-8.492	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
-8.662	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
-8.704	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-9.323	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Zoe Daniel (3.3 v LIB in Goldstein, VIC))	Binary
-9.391	What will happen next concerning the US executive order “Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid”?	Multiple Choice
-10.774	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
-12.605	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-16.096	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
-16.096	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
-16.096	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
-17.093	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-21.609	Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-22.284	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-23.709	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-25.671	Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?	Binary
-25.729	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
-27.929	How many executive orders will Donald Trump sign in February and March 2025?	Continuous
-30.207	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
-31.428	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-32.011	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-50.000	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
-52.732	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-66.096	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-76.462	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-79.784	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-91.427	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-97.630	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-104.598	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-116.911	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-132.726	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
-145.999	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-152.966	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-159.201	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-178.858	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-202.172	Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?	Binary
-206.626	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-220.323	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-281.787	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-301.636	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-487.127	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
-511.417	Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?	Binary
-553.377	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-558.446	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
-710.391	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary