darron

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3919	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.313	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
98.058	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
97.366	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
92.368	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
91.905	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
86.796	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
85.354	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
84.669	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
83.627	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
83.309	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
83.154	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
83.048	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
82.504	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
81.195	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
80.089	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
79.314	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
78.767	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
78.484	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
78.139	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
76.963	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
76.131	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
74.973	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
74.854	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
74.781	Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?	Binary
74.126	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
73.999	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
73.109	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
72.512	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
72.283	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
72.011	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
70.286	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
68.632	Will India surpass Germany in GDP by the end of 2025?	Binary
68.446	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
64.882	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
64.840	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
63.554	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
63.530	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
62.611	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
60.421	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
59.919	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
59.822	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
59.040	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
57.893	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
57.366	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
57.002	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
56.974	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
56.885	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
56.617	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
55.458	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
55.281	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
55.177	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
54.973	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
54.629	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
54.369	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
53.302	Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?	Binary
52.981	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
52.385	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
49.143	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
49.109	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
48.306	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
47.517	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
45.216	Who will win the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?	Multiple Choice
43.428	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
42.442	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
41.689	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
40.747	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
37.614	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
36.889	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
36.544	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
36.269	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
36.211	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
34.539	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
34.250	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
33.927	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
33.891	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
33.101	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
32.603	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
31.693	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
31.207	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
30.223	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
29.954	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
29.702	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
28.042	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
27.400	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
26.922	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
26.563	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
26.176	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
23.764	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
23.021	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
22.601	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
21.868	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.994	Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Europa League?	Multiple Choice
16.449	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
16.171	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
15.768	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
14.958	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
14.957	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
14.715	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
13.090	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
13.051	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
12.215	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
11.969	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
11.580	Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.453	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
11.163	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
11.021	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
8.307	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
7.989	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
7.419	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 18, 2025)	Continuous
6.342	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
5.651	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
5.267	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
3.693	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
2.873	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
2.817	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
2.740	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
1.980	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
1.844	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
1.120	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.002	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
-1.278	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-1.718	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-2.647	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-3.490	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
-4.729	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-5.094	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
-8.192	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-10.419	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-16.344	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-18.330	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-20.322	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-21.212	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-26.468	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-26.712	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
-27.128	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
-32.452	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
-35.708	Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-38.138	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-42.272	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
-44.845	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-51.662	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-54.508	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
-58.225	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-59.050	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-64.580	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-79.688	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-85.869	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-88.756	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-90.793	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-138.650	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-581.208	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary