Mvem

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3318	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
144.813	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
142.490	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
139.604	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
137.480	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
132.258	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
106.685	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
100.489	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
95.801	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
95.229	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
94.089	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
88.438	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
83.997	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
82.543	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
82.198	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
82.158	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
81.737	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
80.449	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
78.476	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
77.987	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
77.938	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
76.515	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
75.740	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
74.856	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
72.729	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
72.528	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
72.104	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
71.953	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
69.677	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
67.727	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
67.429	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
65.086	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
65.010	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
61.833	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
61.166	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
60.144	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
58.510	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
57.184	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
57.082	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
53.902	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
53.529	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
52.824	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
49.852	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
48.605	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
48.351	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
47.620	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
44.877	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
44.336	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
43.141	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
43.099	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
42.889	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
40.489	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
39.034	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
37.835	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
36.947	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
36.388	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
35.712	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
35.648	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
34.442	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
33.849	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
33.651	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
33.255	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
33.226	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
31.798	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
28.235	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
27.991	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
27.332	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
27.131	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
25.970	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
25.037	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
23.810	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
22.812	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
20.448	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
19.795	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
19.344	How much will Superman (2025) gross worldwide during its opening weekend?	Continuous
17.873	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
16.375	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
15.358	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
15.237	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
14.458	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
13.295	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
13.160	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
12.908	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
12.637	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
12.181	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
11.182	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
10.807	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
8.936	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
6.718	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on its public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
5.395	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
3.979	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
2.248	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
2.191	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
2.172	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
0.894	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
0.582	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
0.233	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
0.018	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
-	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
-	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
-	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
-0.000	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-2.092	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-3.689	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-4.557	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-7.296	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
-7.685	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-8.259	Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Binary
-10.122	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
-11.511	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-14.272	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
-14.445	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
-14.954	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-23.170	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-27.452	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-28.590	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-31.590	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-33.084	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-53.439	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
-65.321	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-66.987	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-71.283	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-77.879	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-83.255	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-89.663	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
-118.014	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-120.664	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-387.634	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary