PeterWildeford

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.44		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
69.338	99.6%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
64.295	99.3%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco)	Binary
63.501	99.6%	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
61.528	99.6%	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
54.447	98.7%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
48.650	73.7%	When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)	Continuous
45.617	76.9%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
43.594	99.9%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
42.999	63.1%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
42.638	92.3%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
41.523	99.4%	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
37.332	89.4%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
34.956	91.5%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
33.643	81.4%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
33.345	71.7%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
31.397	99.1%	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
31.396	50.9%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
29.882	25.2%	Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?	Binary
29.364	89.7%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
29.016	99.3%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
28.610	96.5%	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
28.430	96.1%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
27.741	99.7%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
26.926	91.1%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
25.465	89.3%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
25.192	82.0%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
24.870	91.1%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
24.857	99.5%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
24.780	98.8%	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
23.966	98.1%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
23.361	95.9%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
22.941	99.7%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
22.650	68.8%	Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?	Binary
22.158	95.2%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
21.679	94.6%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
21.435	91.1%	If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?	Binary
21.265	98.0%	Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?	Binary
21.149	99.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
21.092	89.4%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
20.903	98.7%	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
20.521	39.2%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
20.032	86.0%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
19.822	99.6%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
19.310	95.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
19.076	98.5%	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
18.533	98.9%	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
18.206	88.0%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
18.144	85.2%	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
18.062	99.6%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
17.947	99.4%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
17.756	23.7%	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
17.428	99.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
17.292	70.5%	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
17.168	99.9%	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
17.145	90.7%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
16.708	27.8%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
16.683	100.0%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
16.276	59.3%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
15.854	90.3%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
15.814	77.4%	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
15.434	44.8%	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
15.399	90.2%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
15.334	88.8%	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
15.321	50.8%	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026)	Continuous
15.218	99.1%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
14.952	61.0%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
14.820	65.5%	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
14.767	99.2%	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
14.602	99.8%	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
14.172	90.8%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
14.167	69.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal)	Binary
14.054	99.7%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
13.879	65.9%	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
13.723	47.3%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
13.691	40.6%	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
13.508	98.6%	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
13.350	93.2%	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
12.853	64.5%	Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?	Binary
12.808	43.4%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
12.688	69.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative)	Binary
12.544	52.8%	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
12.401	81.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
12.354	22.7%	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
12.343	99.0%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
12.122	91.1%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
11.917	50.7%	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
11.177	55.1%	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
11.022	99.9%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
11.007	66.0%	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
10.981	99.0%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
10.704	56.6%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
10.592	64.3%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
10.451	52.8%	In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus?	Binary
10.233	89.4%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
10.225	93.2%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.862	58.1%	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
9.779	82.3%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
9.218	63.8%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
9.211	95.5%	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
9.045	50.8%	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.895	99.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
8.688	90.2%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.623	93.6%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
8.527	67.9%	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
8.498	20.2%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
8.392	47.3%	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
8.108	20.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
7.976	99.9%	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
7.383	71.4%	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
7.178	99.0%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
7.152	90.0%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
7.087	99.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.086	55.2%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
6.961	64.9%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
6.773	24.9%	Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?	Binary
6.622	69.5%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.511	70.4%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
6.489	45.0%	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
6.464	58.6%	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
6.410	99.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.164	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
5.963	20.9%	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
5.961	99.6%	Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?	Binary
5.912	98.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
5.793	35.0%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
5.754	93.5%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
5.693	99.9%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
5.539	46.3%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
5.537	65.8%	Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?	Binary
5.479	55.2%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
5.422	10.7%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
5.374	99.3%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
5.306	99.0%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
5.295	89.4%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
5.096	99.7%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
5.005	99.5%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
4.971	99.9%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
4.864	33.8%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
4.776	47.1%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
4.676	76.9%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
4.591	50.7%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
4.408	66.7%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
4.028	90.2%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
3.885	98.0%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
3.650	37.1%	Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026)	Binary
3.612	79.1%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
3.485	63.3%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
3.420	50.3%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
3.218	78.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
3.109	99.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
3.060	99.0%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
3.017	99.3%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
2.783	7.6%	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
2.774	23.9%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
2.650	68.7%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
2.558	99.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.390	69.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
2.379	78.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.369	77.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
2.358	99.3%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
2.337	3.5%	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
2.301	62.4%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
2.297	91.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
2.285	30.5%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
2.247	99.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
2.227	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
2.163	20.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
2.124	22.3%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
2.110	78.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.833	20.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
1.815	56.9%	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
1.547	69.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
1.497	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.373	77.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.346	6.1%	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
1.337	20.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
1.262	99.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
1.228	49.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
1.185	69.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
1.181	78.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
1.127	96.2%	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
0.990	24.3%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
0.989	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.982	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.958	18.6%	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
0.925	69.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
0.898	49.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.852	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
0.818	9.9%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?	Binary
0.795	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.684	8.8%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
0.672	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.578	5.0%	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
0.557	0.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
0.520	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
0.472	49.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.423	99.5%	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
0.403	88.8%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
0.359	99.3%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.358	1.4%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
0.346	1.4%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.221	99.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
0.194	0.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
0.187	2.5%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.181	0.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
0.163	2.5%	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.139	0.9%	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
0.122	0.8%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-0.058	0.4%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.131	99.5%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
-0.146	55.2%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-0.424	64.8%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
-0.446	20.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
-0.515	2.4%	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
-0.627	37.0%	BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?	Binary
-1.381	13.1%	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
-2.243	20.4%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (No Labels)	Continuous
-2.401	28.3%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-2.450	78.4%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
-2.850	44.2%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
-2.977	51.9%	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-3.425	99.6%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
-3.653	44.2%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
-4.398	5.6%	Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026?	Binary
-4.601	44.2%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
-4.997	44.2%	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
-5.069	44.2%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
-5.546	20.9%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-5.863	29.6%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-5.965	96.0%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-6.213	44.2%	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
-7.222	98.8%	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
-13.175	55.1%	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-13.830	92.2%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
-14.235	96.0%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
-14.840	11.7%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
-17.421	99.5%	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
-20.579	51.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-22.182	99.7%	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-23.140	84.5%	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
-26.835	97.5%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
-33.348	99.4%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-33.366	100.0%	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
-35.219	34.3%	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-41.070	99.1%	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
-46.010	38.4%	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
-56.889	99.7%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
-63.405	95.2%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
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