Pablo

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.31	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
116.145	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
96.424	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
94.188	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
92.389	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
91.887	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
80.820	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
69.971	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
66.557	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
53.694	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
52.372	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
48.987	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
46.915	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
46.701	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
43.539	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
41.435	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
34.884	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
34.800	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
33.764	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
33.385	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
33.118	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
32.949	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
32.797	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
32.696	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
32.448	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
31.694	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
31.521	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
30.845	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
30.833	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
29.852	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
29.551	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
29.366	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
28.867	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
28.866	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
28.466	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
28.253	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
28.088	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
27.644	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
27.497	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
26.682	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
26.624	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
26.532	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
25.932	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
25.459	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
25.191	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
25.047	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
25.013	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
24.717	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
24.592	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
24.468	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
24.329	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
24.294	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
24.262	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
24.238	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
24.027	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
23.845	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
23.637	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
23.424	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
22.995	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
22.935	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
22.923	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
22.694	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
22.548	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
22.031	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
21.756	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
21.381	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
21.315	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
21.314	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
21.030	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
20.928	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
20.824	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
20.254	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
20.219	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
20.207	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
19.031	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
18.938	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
18.672	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
18.598	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
18.477	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
18.140	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
17.975	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
17.908	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
17.906	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
17.054	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
16.766	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
16.236	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
15.859	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
15.778	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
15.650	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
15.538	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
15.187	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
15.104	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
14.401	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
14.288	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
14.266	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
13.949	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
13.277	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
12.950	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
12.075	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
12.065	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
12.064	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
12.040	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
12.009	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
11.781	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
11.709	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
11.638	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
11.438	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
11.413	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
11.369	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
11.284	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
11.097	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
11.096	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
10.771	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
10.769	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
10.588	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
10.084	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
10.025	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
9.910	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
9.817	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
9.567	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
9.468	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
9.434	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
9.066	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
9.031	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
9.024	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
8.685	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
8.576	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
8.127	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
7.601	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
7.581	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
7.424	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
7.287	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
7.130	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
6.976	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
6.692	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
6.658	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
6.625	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
6.270	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
6.122	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
6.080	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
5.527	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
5.062	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
5.057	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
5.046	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
4.761	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
4.526	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
4.524	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
4.304	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
4.236	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
4.030	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
4.017	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
3.795	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
3.728	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
3.413	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
3.249	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
2.816	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
2.524	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
2.509	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
2.453	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
2.381	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
2.264	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
2.259	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
1.885	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
1.575	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
1.344	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
-0.270	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
-0.316	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
-0.359	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
-0.473	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
-1.366	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-2.633	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-3.746	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
-3.913	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-3.939	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
-4.143	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
-4.246	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-5.034	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-5.687	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-5.825	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-5.953	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
-7.153	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-7.332	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-7.815	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
-8.050	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-8.099	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
-8.900	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
-10.104	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
-10.327	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-12.809	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
-12.881	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-13.807	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
-14.961	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-18.335	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-24.348	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-24.845	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-28.559	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-33.638	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-35.165	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-48.662	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-54.662	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
-59.854	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-72.746	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-73.505	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-73.845	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
-75.028	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
-82.282	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-82.748	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-99.002	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-109.992	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-127.645	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous