Skerry

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

35.87		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
147.785	97.9%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
140.093	96.2%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
137.957	94.7%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
129.594	98.6%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
120.858	98.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
117.889	99.4%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
110.649	94.8%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
108.461	98.4%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
96.358	96.9%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
94.029	97.2%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
88.416	98.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
87.785	99.4%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
87.201	77.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
86.483	97.9%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
85.977	99.3%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
78.605	99.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
75.163	98.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
73.625	79.1%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
70.777	87.9%	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
69.281	95.4%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
68.400	96.9%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
67.280	95.0%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
66.990	91.1%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
65.757	95.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
63.354	99.0%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
61.599	99.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
58.661	97.2%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
57.237	93.6%	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.904	96.7%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
54.250	86.8%	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
53.641	78.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
53.440	86.4%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
53.430	58.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
53.361	99.3%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.094	58.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
51.476	73.2%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
50.593	68.7%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
49.436	98.6%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
49.292	98.9%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
49.044	95.7%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
48.718	84.8%	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
47.919	83.7%	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
46.589	99.3%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
46.023	79.3%	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
45.928	97.2%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
43.824	97.2%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
42.564	93.1%	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
40.220	97.2%	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
39.682	97.2%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
38.274	85.5%	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
37.944	94.5%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
37.839	88.0%	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
37.039	82.5%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
36.283	85.7%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
36.261	97.0%	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
36.216	98.9%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
35.389	95.8%	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
35.033	79.6%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
34.536	94.5%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
33.973	99.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
33.463	79.8%	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
32.723	38.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
32.524	71.0%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
32.440	97.5%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
31.608	97.2%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
30.587	56.4%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
30.217	71.3%	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
30.215	95.9%	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
29.656	76.4%	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
29.654	83.8%	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
29.186	88.0%	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary
29.170	94.5%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
28.905	98.9%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
28.443	97.2%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
27.965	90.6%	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
27.715	97.2%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
26.939	98.2%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
26.824	78.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
26.822	89.6%	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
26.576	98.5%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
24.770	71.1%	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
24.416	97.2%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
24.273	92.9%	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
23.361	56.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
23.356	88.1%	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
23.061	97.1%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
22.799	78.2%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
22.690	98.6%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
22.017	98.9%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
21.779	85.0%	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
21.435	99.2%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
21.232	97.2%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
20.632	95.7%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
20.205	41.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
19.877	91.6%	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
18.689	79.0%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
18.205	97.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
17.914	58.2%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
17.486	90.3%	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
16.437	97.1%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
15.835	96.9%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
15.760	32.9%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
14.691	97.2%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
14.677	79.7%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
14.105	55.9%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
13.906	98.6%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
13.528	86.4%	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
13.397	99.7%	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
13.295	89.1%	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
13.076	91.8%	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
12.703	32.9%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
12.546	94.3%	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
12.320	91.8%	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
11.670	17.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.295	99.2%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
11.211	13.3%	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
10.509	27.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
10.070	78.5%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
9.999	30.8%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
9.141	15.6%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.817	65.1%	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
8.643	45.8%	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
7.719	10.6%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
7.618	73.1%	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
7.015	91.8%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
6.283	39.5%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
5.818	8.8%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
5.299	54.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
5.153	31.0%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
5.106	47.5%	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
4.769	94.3%	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
4.664	11.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
4.304	50.7%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
3.638	87.5%	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
2.751	52.2%	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
2.010	92.6%	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
1.739	96.9%	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
0.794	59.4%	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
0.298	4.2%	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
0.111	83.9%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-0.417	63.3%	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
-1.100	95.6%	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
-1.119	20.5%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-1.432	96.1%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-2.336	58.4%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
-2.404	95.3%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-2.710	4.9%	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
-3.386	84.2%	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
-5.345	86.0%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-6.120	31.3%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
-7.493	26.7%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-8.072	81.9%	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
-11.018	53.8%	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-11.394	96.9%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-12.507	98.4%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
-18.852	85.2%	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
-19.896	54.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-21.329	89.0%	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
-39.211	78.2%	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-44.124	87.3%	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-44.424	78.7%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-49.572	30.8%	In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?	Binary
-57.342	90.3%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-72.415	43.2%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-165.004	93.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary