Alexander230

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

21.26		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
85.423	92.1%	Will any opposition legislator in Taiwan lose their recall election on August 23, 2025?	Binary
77.095	98.2%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
76.373	50.0%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
69.778	77.4%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
68.994	82.1%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
65.957	80.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
62.860	77.5%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
61.898	83.1%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
61.672	69.7%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
55.444	54.8%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
46.607	89.4%	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
46.182	91.9%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
45.889	56.7%	Which team will win the 2025 Six Nations Championship?	Multiple Choice
41.143	78.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
40.452	61.3%	What will be the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility estimate of CPI inflation for 2025 as of March 2025?	Multiple Choice
36.087	77.9%	Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?	Binary
34.426	27.1%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
34.359	50.0%	Will New York City hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit before August 1, 2025?	Binary
34.222	54.9%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
33.295	63.5%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
32.260	29.2%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
31.535	69.5%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
31.245	31.9%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
29.771	35.1%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
29.419	94.6%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
27.660	39.4%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
26.298	20.4%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
26.081	35.7%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
25.659	67.7%	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
25.308	82.7%	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
25.214	88.3%	[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?	Binary
24.031	87.1%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
23.541	79.7%	Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Europa League?	Multiple Choice
23.332	38.4%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
23.036	17.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
20.667	31.8%	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.878	27.2%	How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.365	60.3%	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
19.266	27.2%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
18.821	50.6%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
18.117	75.4%	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
17.693	43.6%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
17.312	14.1%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
17.117	54.2%	Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100)	Binary
16.983	83.4%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
16.953	49.2%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
16.763	90.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
16.574	94.2%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
16.525	40.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
16.363	94.1%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
15.568	80.2%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
15.423	49.1%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
15.398	40.1%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
15.309	30.7%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
14.450	80.3%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
14.234	24.3%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
14.175	31.7%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
13.690	59.4%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
13.250	50.6%	Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?	Binary
12.439	51.6%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
11.792	32.6%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.161	57.0%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
10.215	30.1%	Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?	Binary
10.193	59.9%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
10.125	46.6%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
10.117	20.9%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
9.610	50.0%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
9.466	13.7%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
9.433	10.1%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
8.859	59.4%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
8.785	96.7%	Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?	Binary
8.597	85.4%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
8.511	49.3%	What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?	Continuous
8.173	40.9%	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
8.153	48.1%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
8.137	48.4%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
7.981	61.4%	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
7.955	50.0%	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
7.931	16.6%	Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?	Binary
7.702	50.0%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
7.685	35.7%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
7.347	12.4%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
7.114	59.4%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
7.074	54.6%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
6.970	57.4%	Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?	Binary
6.847	20.1%	When will the 2025 Australian Federal election be held?	Continuous
6.705	38.1%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
6.479	9.5%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
6.420	30.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
6.377	59.6%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
6.018	7.3%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
5.969	38.9%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
5.594	15.5%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
5.389	44.8%	Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?	Binary
5.080	32.6%	What will happen next concerning the US executive order “Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid”?	Multiple Choice
4.964	15.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
4.808	23.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
4.410	39.2%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
4.261	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Zoe Daniel (3.3 v LIB in Goldstein, VIC))	Binary
4.164	36.7%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
3.924	11.1%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
3.564	95.0%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
3.514	39.1%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
3.381	10.9%	What will be the the global surface air temperature on April 1, 2025?	Continuous
3.369	45.1%	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
3.312	51.1%	[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?	Binary
3.214	13.4%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
3.076	7.4%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
2.910	77.8%	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
2.810	22.0%	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
2.667	15.7%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
2.637	9.2%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
2.529	29.1%	Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?	Binary
2.498	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Monique Ryan (2.2 v LIB in Kooyong, VIC))	Binary
2.488	34.8%	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-25)	Continuous
2.375	53.9%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
2.014	37.7%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
1.885	8.3%	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
1.324	11.8%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
1.318	16.5%	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
1.183	36.7%	What will be the IMDb rating of Severance's second season finale?	Continuous
1.170	71.9%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
1.028	13.1%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
0.999	71.2%	[Short fuse] How many visitors will AnimeJapan 2025 have?	Continuous
0.945	27.0%	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
0.797	14.4%	What will be the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US for the following weeks? (Week ending January 11, 2025)	Continuous
0.753	85.6%	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
0.649	66.2%	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
0.583	3.5%	How many cases will be confirmed in the Texas measles outbreak before April 7, 2025?	Continuous
0.509	41.6%	Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?	Binary
0.500	23.5%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
0.273	2.4%	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
0.164	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Andrew Wilkie (20.8 v ALP in Clark, TAS))	Binary
0.136	0.2%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
0.131	10.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
0.122	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Helen Haines (8.9 v LIB in Indi, VIC))	Binary
0.119	1.4%	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
0.083	60.4%	Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?	Binary
-0.269	70.2%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
-0.347	50.0%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
-0.436	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Zali Steggall (9.4 v LIB in Warringah, NSW))	Binary
-0.525	97.8%	Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?	Binary
-0.740	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Dai Le (1.1 v ALP in Fowler, NSW))	Binary
-0.898	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Allegra Spender (6.8 v LIB in Wentworth, NSW))	Binary
-1.050	43.6%	Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-1.053	34.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
-1.072	23.2%	Which party will win the seat of Bullwinkel in the 2025 Australian Federal Election?	Multiple Choice
-1.123	57.5%	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
-1.341	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Kate Chaney (1.3 v LIB in Curtin, WA))	Binary
-1.580	57.4%	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
-1.773	11.7%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
-2.488	41.9%	Will the following independent members retain their seats in the next Australian Federal Election? (Sophie Scamps (3.3 v LIB in Mackellar, NSW))	Binary
-2.945	95.4%	Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?	Binary
-7.374	84.7%	What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election?	Continuous
-7.413	49.7%	Which team will win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off?	Multiple Choice
-7.467	76.7%	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
-7.950	62.9%	Чи отримає Україна Тауруси до липня 2025? / Will Ukraine acquire Taurus missiles before July 2025?	Binary
-8.019	60.2%	[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?	Binary
-9.292	94.5%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
-10.423	74.8%	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
-12.055	72.7%	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
-12.784	10.0%	Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?	Binary
-13.697	83.1%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
-22.643	5.7%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-30.986	50.0%	Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?	Binary
-65.841	80.1%	[Short fuse] Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-74.064	88.1%	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
-103.352	67.1%	What will be be the price of Gold per troy ounce on May 16, 2025?	Continuous
-108.258	76.7%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous