ege_erdil

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.585	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
127.905	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
107.028	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
81.278	What will be the case-to-hospitalization rate in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
63.296	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
52.428	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
35.196	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides dated 20 August?	Continuous
34.601	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
33.934	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?	Continuous
31.573	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
31.187	What will be the 7-day moving average of percent positivity by lab report date in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
28.559	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
25.226	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
24.831	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
24.752	What will be the 7-day moving average of the percentage of people wearing masks in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
24.652	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
23.078	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
21.597	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?	Continuous
20.947	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
20.306	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?	Continuous
19.721	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
19.177	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
18.444	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
18.408	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
17.535	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
16.162	What will be the 7-day moving average of vaccine doses administered in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
15.759	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
15.337	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
14.795	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
14.507	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
11.797	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
11.083	Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?	Binary
10.350	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
10.084	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
9.390	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
8.863	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
8.756	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
8.648	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
8.513	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 10th of December, 2021?	Continuous
7.637	How many members will the next Bundestag have?	Continuous
6.998	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
6.901	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
5.780	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
5.505	How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 10 September?	Continuous
5.463	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
5.237	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
5.199	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
5.166	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
5.144	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
5.017	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 17th of December, 2021?	Continuous
4.695	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
4.215	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
3.802	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
3.564	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
3.402	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
3.168	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
3.006	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
2.935	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
2.872	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?	Continuous
2.684	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
2.422	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?	Continuous
2.365	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
2.359	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
1.732	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
1.394	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
1.313	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
1.249	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.163	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
1.083	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.920	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.799	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.418	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
0.328	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
0.313	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
0.217	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
0.160	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
0.102	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
0.096	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
0.002	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-0.131	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 10th, 2021?	Continuous
-0.416	Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?	Binary
-0.901	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
-2.702	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-3.385	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?	Continuous
-4.823	What will be percentage of population will indicate they are "vaccine accepting" in Virginia on 21 August?	Continuous
-8.444	What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-8.993	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on December 31st, 2021?	Continuous
-9.436	Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?	Binary
-14.818	What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?	Continuous
-16.650	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 26th of November, 2021?	Continuous
-18.930	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 21 August?	Continuous
-24.547	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-30.302	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 31st of December, 2021?	Continuous
-30.929	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
-41.596	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between November 12th, 2021 and February 4th, 2022?	Continuous
-58.955	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary