| 63.383 | 83.2% | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 55.047 | 99.9% | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 50.449 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 43.474 | 59.9% | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 39.509 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 37.830 | 89.0% | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 34.570 | 99.7% | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 32.611 | 99.9% | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.600 | 96.2% | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 30.494 | 97.4% | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 29.757 | 98.9% | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.636 | 99.8% | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 28.998 | 98.4% | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 28.483 | 49.9% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 26.829 | 96.2% | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 25.886 | 99.3% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 25.499 | 96.6% | How many Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 25.182 | 49.8% | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.169 | 78.8% | When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods? | Continuous |
| 23.836 | 97.5% | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 23.135 | 99.7% | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.655 | 100.0% | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.952 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 19.927 | 99.7% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 18.532 | 96.3% | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 18.370 | 97.8% | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 17.456 | 95.6% | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 17.265 | 37.1% | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.178 | 99.7% | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 16.082 | 99.9% | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 15.550 | 37.8% | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 15.207 | 100.0% | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 15.068 | 19.5% | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 14.201 | 83.1% | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 13.938 | 99.8% | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 13.568 | 96.2% | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 13.472 | 86.1% | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 12.688 | 99.7% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 12.170 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 12.111 | 28.5% | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 11.707 | 100.0% | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 11.615 | 87.8% | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.669 | 26.4% | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 10.614 | 66.6% | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| 10.537 | 98.7% | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.012 | 99.5% | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.869 | 49.9% | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 9.675 | 29.1% | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 9.564 | 80.3% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 9.509 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 9.295 | 82.9% | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.184 | 92.1% | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 8.836 | 98.0% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 8.727 | 37.7% | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.335 | 63.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 8.307 | 66.0% | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 8.277 | 38.4% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 8.234 | 100.0% | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.543 | 94.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 7.402 | 63.6% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 7.313 | 74.7% | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 7.105 | 82.2% | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.013 | 68.0% | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 6.577 | 99.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 6.434 | 38.4% | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 6.371 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 6.355 | 89.9% | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 6.117 | 75.0% | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.642 | 94.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 5.608 | 98.7% | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.457 | 87.4% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 5.451 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 5.147 | 98.7% | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.943 | 97.7% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 4.801 | 98.7% | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.765 | 93.1% | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.633 | 97.7% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 4.556 | 99.7% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.458 | 96.8% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 4.165 | 97.6% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.037 | 87.4% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 3.858 | 34.8% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 3.601 | 87.4% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 3.580 | 97.7% | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 3.544 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 3.452 | 99.8% | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.339 | 97.1% | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.337 | 57.8% | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 3.289 | 98.2% | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 3.159 | 7.4% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 2.740 | 98.0% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 2.452 | 87.4% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 2.337 | 95.7% | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.290 | 14.5% | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 2.256 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 2.220 | 83.3% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 2.103 | 4.2% | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 2.073 | 74.4% | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.025 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 1.954 | 98.0% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 1.734 | 96.6% | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.730 | 40.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 1.692 | 87.4% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 1.674 | 98.9% | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.652 | 92.4% | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 1.457 | 96.3% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 1.387 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 1.385 | 72.3% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 1.276 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 1.260 | 98.0% | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 1.167 | 67.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 1.159 | 7.4% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 0.967 | 87.1% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 0.954 | 40.0% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 0.884 | 3.7% | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 0.809 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 0.697 | 72.3% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 0.697 | 26.9% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 0.660 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 0.660 | 72.3% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 0.656 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 0.642 | 83.3% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.609 | 41.1% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 0.573 | 70.0% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.523 | 65.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 0.433 | 94.1% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 0.427 | 84.5% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 0.382 | 96.6% | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 0.372 | 25.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 0.270 | 94.2% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 0.247 | 21.9% | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.240 | 95.8% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 0.182 | 11.7% | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 0.158 | 49.8% | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 0.059 | 64.6% | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -0.025 | 84.8% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| -0.181 | 67.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| -0.227 | 99.8% | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -2.842 | 98.6% | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -2.919 | 95.7% | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -10.556 | 79.2% | What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -18.235 | 49.3% | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -22.997 | 99.7% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -33.915 | 99.4% | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |