exmateriae

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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17.11		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
134.383	94.0%	What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
95.957	99.6%	Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?	Binary
94.401	57.9%	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
91.337	94.0%	What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
70.445	100.0%	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
62.676	99.4%	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
61.359	93.4%	What will be the number of operational satellites in each year? (2025)	Continuous
61.115	79.8%	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
60.799	24.8%	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
55.229	100.0%	Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
53.571	75.1%	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
52.280	99.9%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2025)	Continuous
51.798	65.2%	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q4 (FY2025, ends Jan 2025))	Continuous
50.066	95.1%	What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
48.551	71.8%	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
47.040	49.5%	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
45.441	96.5%	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
43.449	51.0%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Neutron)	Continuous
40.231	92.6%	What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused? (2025)	Continuous
39.992	63.9%	Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?	Binary
39.835	74.9%	What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years? (2023)	Continuous
38.655	87.2%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
38.464	98.3%	How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?	Continuous
35.911	99.1%	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
35.335	93.5%	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
34.764	74.9%	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
33.390	92.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship)	Continuous
33.241	94.2%	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
32.841	71.3%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Terran R)	Continuous
32.714	92.6%	What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
31.417	90.2%	Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?	Binary
31.229	99.8%	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
29.981	77.3%	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
28.697	93.6%	How many uncontrolled reentries will China conduct by 2025?	Continuous
28.559	81.2%	What will the world rice yield be (in tonnes per hectare) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
28.219	79.9%	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
28.163	90.9%	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
26.964	58.2%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)	Binary
26.696	95.2%	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
26.581	75.1%	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
25.292	95.1%	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
25.193	36.1%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2025)	Continuous
24.740	84.1%	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
23.660	99.0%	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
23.570	68.0%	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
23.281	73.4%	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
23.185	30.2%	What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2024)	Continuous
23.160	41.5%	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
23.031	69.6%	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
22.752	37.3%	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
22.744	67.2%	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
22.617	95.1%	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
22.447	79.9%	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
22.162	94.2%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
22.003	64.8%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≤99 countries)	Binary
21.494	99.9%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
21.343	99.9%	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
20.954	99.5%	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
20.889	95.9%	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
20.499	29.4%	How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
20.458	45.1%	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
19.746	78.6%	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.455	95.8%	What will be the median cost of a visit to space for a private citizen? (2025)	Continuous
19.441	99.7%	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
18.746	99.9%	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
18.620	85.3%	What will be the number of US states with "right to charge" regulations in 2025?	Continuous
18.174	71.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
18.045	81.2%	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
18.040	78.5%	What will productivity be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.286	99.9%	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
17.263	94.8%	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
17.141	64.8%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny some entities)	Binary
16.952	82.9%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025)	Continuous
16.616	63.0%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
16.564	99.4%	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
16.513	51.2%	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
16.443	40.7%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2025)	Continuous
16.413	78.7%	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
16.305	50.8%	Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?	Binary
16.203	89.1%	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
16.137	77.9%	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
15.848	28.4%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur)	Continuous
15.774	28.0%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2025)	Continuous
15.673	15.7%	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
15.629	79.2%	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
15.539	55.6%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
15.466	40.3%	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
15.219	32.9%	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
15.194	58.2%	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)	Binary
14.815	72.4%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
14.769	92.6%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
14.759	98.2%	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
14.653	99.9%	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2025)	Continuous
14.642	74.9%	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
14.578	77.4%	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
14.336	91.0%	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
14.024	85.4%	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
13.903	99.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
13.730	24.8%	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
13.566	41.4%	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
13.266	97.9%	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
13.117	94.0%	What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
12.984	33.3%	How many Falcon 9 failures will there be before 2026?	Continuous
12.788	97.3%	Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?	Binary
12.597	92.6%	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
12.564	31.4%	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
12.362	30.3%	How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
12.334	71.1%	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
12.249	53.8%	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
12.059	61.1%	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
12.008	99.9%	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
11.876	64.5%	What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?	Continuous
11.714	99.8%	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
11.699	90.0%	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
11.665	72.4%	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
11.584	73.3%	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
11.527	28.2%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2025)	Continuous
11.255	95.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Progress)	Binary
11.248	98.5%	What will be the world population in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
11.207	85.3%	What will be the number of US states with building code requirements related to electric vehicles in 2025?	Continuous
11.104	78.6%	How many chickens will be slaughtered for meat globally in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.672	23.5%	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
10.624	95.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Centre)	Binary
10.525	79.9%	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
10.518	41.5%	Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
10.203	6.8%	How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
10.144	19.0%	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
9.989	99.9%	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
9.975	95.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)	Binary
9.958	79.6%	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
9.838	36.0%	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
9.832	97.4%	Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?	Binary
9.768	99.9%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
9.563	80.2%	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
9.156	99.8%	What will be the median estimated range (in miles) of all-electric vehicles available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) for the following model years? (2024)	Continuous
8.966	79.6%	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
8.958	58.3%	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.890	11.4%	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
8.719	95.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Red Party)	Binary
8.340	11.6%	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
8.275	100.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
8.254	86.6%	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
8.139	99.6%	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
8.019	10.6%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6)	Continuous
8.002	67.9%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
7.965	37.3%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
7.686	51.0%	Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?	Binary
7.446	79.9%	What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
7.445	99.2%	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.205	83.2%	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
7.129	74.0%	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
7.101	88.9%	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
7.100	82.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
7.036	99.3%	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
7.032	67.2%	Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?	Binary
6.903	99.8%	Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?	Binary
6.851	15.8%	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
6.678	74.0%	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
6.522	73.4%	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
6.508	71.1%	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
6.500	84.8%	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
6.352	67.9%	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
6.303	75.3%	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.263	72.4%	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
6.070	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
6.028	99.7%	Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?	Binary
6.021	76.0%	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
6.005	17.5%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
5.967	50.8%	Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?	Binary
5.961	16.8%	What percent of Earth's marine area will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025)	Continuous
5.836	25.4%	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
5.796	99.4%	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
5.720	78.3%	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
5.672	99.9%	Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
5.670	52.8%	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
5.554	51.3%	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
5.551	77.0%	What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.545	74.4%	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
5.518	95.9%	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
5.475	42.1%	Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?	Binary
5.383	7.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
5.327	8.0%	Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?	Binary
5.175	79.1%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
5.115	32.8%	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
5.090	24.8%	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
5.037	23.7%	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
4.884	8.3%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
4.856	7.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
4.825	94.6%	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
4.783	73.2%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
4.740	78.2%	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
4.735	59.8%	Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?	Binary
4.554	18.0%	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
4.488	24.8%	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
4.350	12.6%	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
4.337	68.0%	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
4.181	97.1%	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
4.170	92.0%	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
4.129	85.0%	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
4.077	30.3%	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
4.077	7.9%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
4.023	9.2%	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
4.009	14.4%	Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?	Binary
3.989	95.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Christian Democratic)	Binary
3.960	99.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
3.918	94.0%	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
3.830	97.3%	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
3.716	64.8%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)	Binary
3.617	47.4%	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
3.422	8.2%	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
3.416	88.5%	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
3.400	99.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
3.350	27.2%	When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn)	Continuous
3.324	22.8%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican)	Continuous
3.270	99.7%	Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?	Binary
3.054	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
3.023	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
3.020	74.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.924	78.1%	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
2.810	95.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Socialist Left)	Binary
2.771	64.8%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
2.714	97.3%	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
2.689	22.8%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic)	Continuous
2.527	64.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
2.495	99.9%	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
2.487	11.2%	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
2.456	69.0%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic)	Binary
2.408	74.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
2.394	99.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
2.268	97.1%	Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?	Binary
2.167	87.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
1.862	9.0%	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
1.851	74.2%	Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?	Binary
1.847	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
1.808	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
1.796	78.8%	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
1.698	12.3%	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
1.695	70.3%	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
1.613	69.0%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's)	Binary
1.566	78.5%	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
1.554	82.0%	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
1.525	74.2%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.514	5.7%	When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union?	Continuous
1.499	95.8%	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
1.491	91.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
1.404	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
1.343	99.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
1.308	91.1%	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
1.252	69.0%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois)	Binary
1.239	95.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Green)	Binary
1.199	13.5%	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
1.143	95.1%	Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)	Binary
1.122	3.4%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
1.090	12.7%	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
1.070	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
1.049	47.0%	How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
1.007	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
0.992	69.0%	Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green)	Binary
0.965	64.8%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)	Binary
0.954	78.5%	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
0.912	64.8%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing)	Binary
0.879	43.8%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025)	Binary
0.789	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
0.736	4.0%	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
0.712	22.8%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (No Labels)	Continuous
0.642	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
0.575	22.8%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green)	Continuous
0.531	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
0.490	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
0.454	65.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
0.448	23.7%	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
0.439	23.7%	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
0.431	1.4%	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.262	0.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
0.237	64.8%	Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)	Binary
0.135	5.0%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
0.105	0.7%	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.059	5.0%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
0.056	5.0%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
0.044	5.0%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
0.044	5.0%	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
0.009	0.1%	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
-0.031	0.5%	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance)	Continuous
-0.255	2.3%	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
-0.610	8.3%	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
-0.960	86.2%	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-1.554	95.1%	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
-1.996	83.7%	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
-2.111	81.2%	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-2.130	62.3%	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-2.196	13.5%	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-2.709	94.4%	What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time? (2025)	Continuous
-3.074	42.5%	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
-3.159	22.8%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward)	Continuous
-5.127	40.1%	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
-5.182	66.7%	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
-6.384	18.0%	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-7.581	41.3%	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-7.601	22.8%	What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian)	Continuous
-7.799	87.4%	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-10.880	46.2%	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
-11.221	99.9%	What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
-17.639	99.4%	What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025)	Continuous
-20.649	67.4%	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-30.319	67.1%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-45.263	90.6%	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-52.852	23.6%	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
-57.651	99.9%	Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?	Binary
-78.157	78.7%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-99.105	97.4%	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous