IY

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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6.782		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
107.825	99.9%	When will Israel lift the Gaza Strip total blockade on four essential goods?	Continuous
102.291	99.8%	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
72.439	99.8%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
57.894	99.9%	How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years? (2024)	Continuous
43.407	83.5%	Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?	Binary
43.178	97.8%	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
40.727	97.7%	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
36.479	78.8%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024)	Continuous
36.140	91.2%	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
36.094	99.9%	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
34.346	64.3%	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
34.228	45.2%	What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024)	Continuous
31.597	100.0%	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
30.579	100.0%	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
30.240	99.7%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023)	Continuous
29.313	99.8%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
26.498	100.0%	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
26.298	99.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)	Binary
24.631	99.8%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
24.477	99.8%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
23.519	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
23.162	100.0%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
22.194	92.9%	BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
19.812	98.9%	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
19.789	78.9%	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
19.699	36.7%	How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.572	99.7%	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
19.302	99.9%	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
18.397	45.2%	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
18.332	99.8%	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
18.282	78.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City)	Binary
16.869	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
16.410	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
16.243	99.9%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024)	Continuous
15.755	40.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
15.656	99.8%	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
15.080	100.0%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
14.984	98.7%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
14.953	99.8%	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
14.130	62.1%	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
13.915	100.0%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
13.140	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
13.088	40.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
12.626	62.1%	Will a New or Joint "Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record" in NBA History be set in 2024?	Binary
11.395	97.7%	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
10.952	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
10.944	96.8%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
10.692	99.8%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
10.412	100.0%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
10.310	88.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich)	Binary
10.221	39.5%	When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?	Continuous
9.942	99.8%	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
9.522	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
9.349	99.2%	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
9.319	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
8.980	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
7.965	99.3%	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
7.849	98.9%	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
7.841	40.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
7.721	99.8%	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.312	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
7.098	45.2%	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
6.672	99.8%	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
6.204	99.8%	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
5.995	53.5%	What will be the share of light vehicles sold globally which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.889	99.8%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
5.770	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas)	Continuous
5.384	78.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona)	Binary
5.321	88.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain)	Binary
5.249	78.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid)	Binary
5.218	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado)	Continuous
5.076	40.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
5.006	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York)	Continuous
4.481	99.8%	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
4.475	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
4.419	99.3%	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2024 or before)	Binary
4.281	99.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)	Binary
4.196	62.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan)	Binary
4.104	99.6%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
4.035	94.9%	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
3.601	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
3.549	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California)	Continuous
3.508	99.5%	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
3.355	99.2%	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
3.351	59.1%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
3.184	99.3%	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
2.916	78.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal)	Binary
2.688	99.8%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
2.636	61.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli)	Binary
2.600	58.3%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad)	Binary
2.567	96.6%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
2.543	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
2.229	100.0%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
2.074	61.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto)	Binary
2.002	99.9%	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
1.832	59.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen)	Binary
1.804	58.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig)	Binary
1.555	100.0%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
1.435	40.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
1.430	58.3%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio)	Binary
1.316	19.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan)	Binary
1.236	18.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United)	Binary
1.235	22.7%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
1.181	99.9%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.091	62.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV)	Binary
1.018	100.0%	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
1.014	99.9%	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
0.825	18.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga)	Binary
0.791	18.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray)	Binary
0.741	99.1%	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
0.706	12.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens)	Binary
0.657	19.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk)	Binary
0.646	0.7%	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
0.633	12.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda)	Binary
0.613	12.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord)	Binary
0.547	12.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic)	Binary
0.546	12.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla)	Binary
0.544	19.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
0.523	1.5%	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.265	2.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp)	Binary
0.195	2.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin)	Binary
0.177	2.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg)	Binary
0.162	2.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica)	Binary
0.135	2.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys)	Binary
-0.119	99.8%	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-0.288	40.7%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
-0.450	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-1.053	100.0%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
-1.955	99.8%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
-2.175	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois)	Continuous
-2.320	99.2%	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.480	99.8%	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-2.559	99.8%	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-3.277	65.3%	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
-3.600	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
-3.647	100.0%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-3.964	99.3%	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-4.002	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-4.765	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
-4.796	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington)	Continuous
-4.849	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-5.281	100.0%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
-6.576	99.7%	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-6.850	99.8%	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-7.451	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-7.707	99.8%	Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season?	Binary
-11.452	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-11.774	99.8%	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
-12.375	98.9%	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
-13.401	98.6%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
-13.616	98.1%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
-13.626	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida)	Continuous
-14.221	98.9%	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-14.266	70.1%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-21.158	99.8%	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
-25.606	100.0%	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
-26.462	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-26.931	98.9%	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-33.978	98.6%	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri)	Continuous
-38.612	98.0%	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-73.920	96.4%	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-296.712	100.0%	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous