darron

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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6.115		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
38.016	98.9%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
32.725	99.4%	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
30.813	98.9%	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
29.920	98.1%	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
25.213	99.1%	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
24.753	99.6%	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
23.287	90.6%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
23.189	67.4%	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
22.485	68.0%	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
21.801	98.5%	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
21.629	49.9%	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
21.236	73.2%	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary
20.229	90.6%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
20.164	99.2%	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
19.698	64.6%	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
19.653	90.6%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
18.780	62.3%	Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?	Binary
18.207	98.0%	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
17.714	98.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)	Binary
16.682	99.3%	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
16.662	78.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
16.398	96.8%	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
16.388	99.8%	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
15.590	60.1%	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
15.108	80.0%	What will China's total population be in these years? (2022)	Continuous
14.939	99.8%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
14.464	78.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
13.719	99.9%	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
13.205	99.7%	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
12.920	99.4%	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
12.873	98.9%	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
12.867	98.9%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
12.861	99.7%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
12.676	54.5%	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
11.735	99.8%	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
11.732	98.9%	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
11.727	78.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
11.585	99.2%	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
11.345	90.6%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
11.278	77.4%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
11.221	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
11.161	91.6%	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
11.007	99.3%	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
10.238	95.4%	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
9.970	83.1%	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
9.858	77.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City)	Binary
9.728	99.2%	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
9.646	84.2%	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
9.243	90.6%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
9.221	17.0%	What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024)	Continuous
9.167	46.5%	Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?	Binary
9.062	99.6%	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
8.320	95.6%	Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season?	Binary
8.004	99.5%	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
8.001	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
7.982	96.8%	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
7.671	92.2%	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
7.488	63.9%	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
7.401	99.6%	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
7.176	99.4%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
6.960	51.7%	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
6.921	49.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
6.899	93.5%	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
6.598	99.9%	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
6.548	17.0%	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2024)	Continuous
6.503	21.1%	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
6.411	90.6%	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
6.241	65.6%	What will China's total population be in these years? (2023)	Continuous
6.040	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
6.035	99.4%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
5.937	87.1%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain)	Binary
5.793	53.4%	How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?	Continuous
5.785	99.4%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
5.739	99.4%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
5.738	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
5.640	78.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
5.598	99.4%	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
5.597	90.6%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)	Binary
5.542	79.4%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
5.131	92.5%	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
5.105	79.4%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
5.053	90.6%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)	Binary
4.902	24.0%	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
4.729	83.1%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.721	98.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)	Binary
4.662	77.4%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
4.635	99.4%	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
4.449	88.9%	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
4.422	79.4%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
4.399	93.9%	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
4.392	99.4%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
4.353	98.9%	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
4.352	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
4.266	17.0%	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
4.165	97.6%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
4.142	77.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
4.134	77.4%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
4.114	99.4%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
4.026	97.5%	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
3.859	78.2%	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
3.308	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
3.288	55.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
3.253	17.0%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024)	Continuous
3.044	77.4%	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
2.993	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
2.794	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
2.784	79.4%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
2.677	79.4%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
2.643	88.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
2.570	22.5%	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
2.439	90.6%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
2.360	90.6%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
2.352	90.6%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)	Binary
2.334	96.5%	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
2.238	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
2.103	8.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
2.086	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
1.938	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
1.924	49.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
1.884	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
1.858	57.9%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig)	Binary
1.855	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
1.833	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
1.752	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
1.707	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
1.692	2.5%	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
1.642	58.3%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen)	Binary
1.632	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
1.617	61.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV)	Binary
1.590	60.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto)	Binary
1.582	57.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio)	Binary
1.560	17.0%	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2024)	Continuous
1.539	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
1.536	49.6%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
1.501	99.3%	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
1.349	67.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
1.340	13.5%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP))	Binary
1.318	85.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
1.256	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
1.241	13.5%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP))	Binary
1.150	65.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
1.145	99.6%	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
1.102	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
0.996	90.5%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
0.959	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
0.886	81.5%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
0.885	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.827	88.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
0.809	18.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga)	Binary
0.799	79.4%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
0.755	99.2%	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
0.750	18.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray)	Binary
0.739	11.3%	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
0.692	67.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
0.682	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
0.648	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
0.637	67.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
0.622	71.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
0.569	18.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk)	Binary
0.560	18.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
0.541	11.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda)	Binary
0.521	57.4%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad)	Binary
0.507	85.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
0.501	55.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
0.498	24.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
0.463	82.0%	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
0.442	83.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
0.439	85.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
0.438	60.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli)	Binary
0.411	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
0.401	96.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
0.354	77.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid)	Binary
0.314	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
0.303	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
0.293	5.3%	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
0.273	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
0.267	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
0.265	18.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
0.262	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
0.258	70.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
0.253	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
0.249	0.3%	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
0.245	13.5%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent))	Binary
0.229	7.8%	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
0.194	11.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord)	Binary
0.153	1.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp)	Binary
0.117	11.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic)	Binary
0.077	0.7%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves)	Binary
0.065	1.6%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys)	Binary
0.050	90.5%	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
0.028	2.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica)	Binary
0.020	0.1%	Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.016	99.9%	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
-0.086	2.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg)	Binary
-0.099	2.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin)	Binary
-0.128	12.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens)	Binary
-0.328	99.7%	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
-0.405	13.5%	Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang))	Binary
-0.587	18.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan)	Binary
-0.644	77.7%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal)	Binary
-0.700	61.3%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan)	Binary
-0.977	77.2%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona)	Binary
-1.187	18.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
-1.379	12.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla)	Binary
-1.648	18.0%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United)	Binary
-1.931	79.4%	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
-1.949	90.6%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
-2.057	8.0%	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
-2.142	87.5%	Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich)	Binary
-2.402	85.1%	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
-5.992	90.6%	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
-8.701	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
-9.103	91.0%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
-13.470	99.2%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-14.813	99.6%	Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election?	Binary
-15.218	55.8%	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
-19.741	99.2%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
-27.050	99.8%	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-30.189	99.2%	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
-34.760	76.2%	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-40.355	95.0%	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
-64.838	90.9%	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary