Mvem

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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36.58		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
148.132	98.8%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
136.859	99.2%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
127.941	98.8%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
125.666	97.3%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
125.323	98.9%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
125.092	98.5%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
115.803	98.5%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
112.426	93.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
111.205	92.7%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
108.929	98.8%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
108.648	98.8%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
105.308	98.8%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
99.011	93.0%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
92.382	99.2%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
87.690	99.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
87.421	97.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
85.990	99.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
85.434	98.4%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
83.728	99.4%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
76.786	99.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
74.949	96.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
73.250	99.1%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
69.636	94.1%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
68.968	99.0%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
67.962	88.3%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
67.905	97.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
67.482	96.8%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
66.385	96.6%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
62.589	99.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
60.920	99.7%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
60.715	98.6%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
54.987	98.8%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
53.625	91.9%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.674	97.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
52.497	98.4%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
50.306	78.7%	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
47.533	95.5%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
47.379	87.8%	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
44.277	98.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
40.764	98.6%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
38.192	98.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
37.298	98.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
36.338	99.3%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
35.623	98.6%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
35.142	98.8%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
34.419	99.7%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
34.208	99.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
33.728	98.7%	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
32.951	98.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
32.257	99.0%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
31.117	94.4%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
30.731	98.3%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
28.593	99.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
28.518	98.7%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
28.178	99.5%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
28.086	95.6%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
27.558	98.1%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
27.192	98.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
25.659	65.3%	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
25.517	98.7%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
25.200	98.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
25.081	98.1%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
24.673	97.8%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
24.216	98.7%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
23.025	90.8%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
22.815	98.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
22.699	47.9%	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
22.467	98.9%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
22.269	95.5%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
17.829	99.9%	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
16.903	98.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
16.375	98.7%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
16.096	99.0%	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
15.936	69.2%	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
13.595	98.7%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
13.297	92.7%	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
12.332	100.0%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
11.782	93.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
11.194	98.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
11.085	99.5%	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.068	98.1%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
10.822	99.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
10.266	98.3%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
9.819	36.8%	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
9.114	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
8.138	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.907	98.8%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
7.704	37.9%	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
7.510	48.1%	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
7.507	24.6%	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
7.446	91.1%	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
7.009	99.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
5.167	91.7%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
4.681	99.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
3.828	99.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
2.419	98.7%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
2.250	99.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
1.927	98.5%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
1.709	98.7%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
0.108	0.4%	Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?	Binary
0.064	98.3%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
0.045	5.1%	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
-0.040	99.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
-0.244	90.9%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-0.576	99.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-1.111	83.6%	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
-1.729	99.6%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
-2.764	95.9%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-4.995	90.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
-6.865	98.3%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-6.877	98.3%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-6.942	73.5%	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-7.337	99.4%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
-8.167	98.1%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-13.042	99.0%	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-15.533	99.3%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-15.715	98.1%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
-27.882	99.1%	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
-32.074	98.7%	Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?	Binary
-34.409	98.4%	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
-43.642	99.9%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-84.491	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary