kramer.andy

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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20.17		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
104.311	98.0%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
93.905	93.9%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
90.589	98.7%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
80.035	98.0%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
77.956	98.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
77.836	98.2%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
73.768	99.0%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
73.644	98.8%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
72.109	98.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
71.303	95.9%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
69.777	95.2%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
68.955	98.2%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
68.744	83.5%	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
68.030	98.0%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
66.600	97.9%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
66.078	99.1%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
65.488	98.7%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
64.265	98.3%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
60.594	98.0%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
60.124	98.3%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
59.962	97.7%	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
58.771	97.2%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
58.338	98.7%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
54.927	97.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
52.872	98.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.785	50.0%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
50.978	99.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
49.432	98.8%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
45.074	78.9%	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
42.562	99.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
40.224	50.0%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
38.849	98.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
38.050	97.7%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
36.307	84.7%	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
33.667	97.7%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
31.823	98.1%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
31.182	99.7%	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
31.119	99.1%	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
31.018	98.5%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
30.761	99.1%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
29.929	84.9%	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.733	50.0%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
28.733	98.6%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
28.196	99.1%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
27.371	93.5%	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
27.266	99.0%	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
26.463	97.4%	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
25.984	96.8%	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
25.656	88.6%	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
24.710	96.6%	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
24.707	97.3%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
24.273	99.2%	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
24.143	92.2%	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
23.784	98.2%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
23.240	98.8%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
23.069	50.0%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
22.777	82.6%	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
22.561	98.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
22.183	72.7%	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
21.869	80.6%	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
21.088	98.8%	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
20.443	97.4%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
19.820	99.4%	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
19.537	97.2%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
18.989	98.6%	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
18.304	98.5%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
17.906	50.0%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
17.284	83.5%	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
17.170	50.0%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
16.584	97.7%	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
15.913	97.3%	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
15.003	87.8%	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
14.593	97.3%	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
14.400	97.9%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
13.179	50.0%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
12.892	97.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
12.151	82.4%	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
12.012	50.0%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
11.764	50.0%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
11.679	95.6%	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
10.414	17.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
8.602	88.0%	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
8.256	91.2%	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
7.631	95.4%	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
7.364	58.8%	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
6.816	98.9%	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
6.125	90.2%	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
6.074	98.0%	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
5.866	15.4%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
5.576	81.5%	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
5.232	50.0%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
4.566	99.1%	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
4.369	98.7%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
4.314	6.9%	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
4.299	88.2%	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
4.292	82.5%	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
4.263	11.4%	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
4.227	50.0%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
4.110	83.6%	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
4.047	94.3%	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
4.040	7.7%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
3.493	5.9%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
3.324	23.8%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
2.939	45.1%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
2.186	71.3%	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
2.152	72.0%	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
0.098	0.4%	How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-0.069	53.7%	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-1.020	99.3%	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
-1.160	82.8%	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-1.841	98.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-3.942	50.0%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
-4.867	43.7%	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
-5.477	97.9%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-6.724	82.8%	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
-12.017	81.2%	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
-12.362	97.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
-15.300	70.0%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
-21.291	87.7%	When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?	Continuous
-21.915	50.0%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-25.543	18.1%	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
-26.694	40.3%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-31.111	98.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
-35.384	90.8%	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
-40.447	50.0%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
-40.587	50.0%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-43.774	98.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-44.558	50.0%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
-46.364	96.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
-62.116	97.1%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-78.457	98.4%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-79.928	83.4%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-137.109	99.0%	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-161.229	84.5%	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary
-307.027	93.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary