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Forecasts: Capabilities Progress

0 comments

Total Energy Consumption - Moderate Progress

0 comments

Total Energy Consumption - Rapid Progress

0 comments

Economist 2021 Series Announcement

8
1313 comments

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

13
2020 comments
38
38 forecasters

Announcing: Epoch AI Robotics Series

8
0 comments

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

39
172172 comments
275
275 forecasters

Announcing the 2025 Vox Future Perfect Contest Winners!

3
66 comments

Forecast 2025 With Vox's Future Perfect Team — $2,500 Prize Pool

14
77 comments

Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?

result: no

11
1212 comments
112
112 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

result: yes

9
88 comments
84
84 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?

result: no

13
44 comments
131
131 forecasters
ResolvedNo

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1
22 comments
19
19 forecasters

2028: mini assay of carbon capture solvent → 2039 cost of point-source carbon capture

0 comments

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018

result: yes

11
3030 comments
81
81 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline

result: yes

6
55 comments
78
78 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?

result: no

21
2626 comments
122
122 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019

result: no

5
88 comments
70
70 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q6 - Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain by end of 2019

71% chance

16
3838 comments
108
108 forecasters
Ambiguous

Ragnarök Question Series: overview

14
55 comments

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31
3434 comments

Animal Welfare Series

11
22 comments

Forecasting the Future of Alt-Meat: A Metaculus Prediction Party

7
77 comments

Future Perfect 2020 Series

7
55 comments