In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?result: no377 comments8585 forecastersResolvedNo
Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?result: yes85858 comments113113 forecastersResolvedYes
If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?result: yes191616 comments141141 forecastersResolvedYes
[short fuse] Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it include his full name?60% chance65108108 comments304304 forecastersAmbiguous