uszy

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.95	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
57.359	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
52.385	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
47.080	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
43.911	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
42.750	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
40.456	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
38.214	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
35.484	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
28.493	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
27.861	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
27.835	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
26.816	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
26.695	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
24.593	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
20.546	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
20.140	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.348	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
18.937	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
18.171	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
17.053	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
16.868	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
15.887	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
14.790	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
14.572	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
14.534	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
14.519	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
13.724	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.453	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
13.200	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
12.958	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
12.789	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
12.785	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
12.682	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
12.499	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
11.823	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
11.530	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
11.481	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.195	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
10.941	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.513	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
9.509	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.335	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.254	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
8.946	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.676	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
8.376	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
8.295	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
7.889	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
7.490	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
7.185	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
6.950	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
6.894	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
6.766	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
6.707	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
6.704	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
6.569	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
6.558	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
6.493	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
6.324	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
6.136	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
5.728	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.402	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
5.337	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
5.245	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.183	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
4.812	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
4.631	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
4.618	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
4.340	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
4.145	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
3.525	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.350	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
2.874	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
2.769	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
2.487	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
2.219	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
2.137	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
1.989	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.665	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
1.004	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
0.757	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
0.364	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
0.140	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
-0.143	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
-0.508	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
-2.040	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-2.042	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-2.189	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-3.518	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-4.060	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-4.121	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-4.478	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-4.729	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
-5.941	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-5.961	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-31.308	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary