evergreenemily

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.315	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
63.086	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
30.823	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
30.546	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
29.145	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?	Continuous
28.845	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
28.039	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
27.914	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
25.300	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
25.028	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
23.990	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
23.420	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
23.273	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.788	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
18.595	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
18.275	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.225	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
17.997	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
16.436	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
16.204	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
16.134	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
15.945	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
15.514	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
14.911	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.581	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
14.508	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
13.845	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
13.587	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
12.789	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
12.749	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
12.657	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
11.818	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
11.607	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
11.531	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
10.700	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
10.272	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
10.056	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
9.599	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
9.450	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
8.705	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
8.554	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.443	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
8.066	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.023	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
7.743	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
7.663	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
7.194	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
6.831	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
6.309	What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2023)	Continuous
6.277	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.932	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
5.701	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
5.377	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
5.188	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
5.166	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
5.128	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
5.115	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
4.957	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
4.792	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
4.735	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
4.652	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.621	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
4.604	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
4.446	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
4.182	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
4.026	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.897	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
3.859	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
3.799	How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?	Continuous
3.361	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
3.332	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
3.242	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.210	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.068	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
2.972	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
2.784	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
2.613	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
2.532	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
2.474	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.413	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
2.413	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
2.351	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
2.254	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
2.214	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.191	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
2.162	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
2.066	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.873	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
1.612	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
1.444	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
1.411	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
1.381	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
1.358	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
1.280	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.278	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.054	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
1.051	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
1.006	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
0.933	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.808	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.772	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
0.503	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
0.406	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
0.361	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
0.184	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
0.035	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
0.029	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
0.016	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
0.016	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
0.014	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
0.014	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
0.012	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
0.012	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
0.011	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
0.010	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
0.010	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
0.009	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.185	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
-0.377	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.701	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-3.541	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
-3.866	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-5.332	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-8.182	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-15.719	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
-17.403	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary