converse

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016-20

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3305	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
100.964	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
94.082	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
93.960	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
93.866	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
92.234	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
91.671	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
91.014	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
90.708	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
87.425	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
84.743	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
84.590	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
84.339	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
84.250	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
83.857	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
83.116	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
82.844	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
82.271	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
81.720	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
81.160	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
80.770	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
79.515	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
77.701	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
76.401	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
76.329	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
75.858	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
74.374	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
72.471	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
72.366	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
72.236	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
70.830	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
70.623	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
70.578	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
70.027	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
69.955	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
68.206	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
67.741	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
67.380	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
67.377	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
67.297	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
67.098	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
66.471	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
65.962	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
65.903	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
65.795	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
65.690	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
63.187	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
61.612	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
58.330	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
57.754	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
56.706	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
55.992	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
55.428	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
54.335	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
53.416	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
51.730	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
51.262	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
49.626	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
48.604	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
48.495	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
47.926	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
47.414	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
46.290	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
44.328	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
43.717	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
43.698	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
42.982	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
42.302	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
41.483	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
41.206	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
41.161	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
39.307	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
39.097	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
38.532	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
38.169	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
37.795	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
37.447	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
36.830	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
35.443	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
34.500	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
33.696	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
32.932	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
32.928	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
32.348	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
30.960	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
27.538	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
26.442	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
26.290	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
26.181	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
25.940	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
24.859	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
24.092	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
23.818	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
22.998	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
22.576	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
21.112	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
20.998	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
20.909	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
19.186	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
17.145	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
15.308	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
14.280	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
12.741	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
11.657	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
11.075	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
11.063	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
8.308	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
8.170	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
8.099	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
7.905	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
7.108	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
6.739	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
5.272	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
4.821	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
4.721	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
4.039	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
3.230	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
0.809	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
0.312	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
0.306	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
0.154	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
-0.191	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-6.877	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
-7.163	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-11.336	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-14.529	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-15.468	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-22.718	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-22.779	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-23.835	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-24.458	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-24.655	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-26.381	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-28.390	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-31.228	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-33.609	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-39.587	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-43.057	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-47.392	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-50.742	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-51.219	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-59.509	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-62.077	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-68.835	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-71.186	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-71.848	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-72.450	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-79.300	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-97.435	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-99.941	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-117.430	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-126.573	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-130.304	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-139.069	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
-147.506	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-171.084	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-186.123	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-227.356	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary