gjm

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

3.764k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.580	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
92.487	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
90.749	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
89.424	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
85.298	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
84.660	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
83.965	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
80.813	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
75.607	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
74.928	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
69.070	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
68.491	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
67.762	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
67.743	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
67.699	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
66.869	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
66.797	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
66.716	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
66.551	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
64.664	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
63.339	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
61.220	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
61.002	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
60.649	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
59.440	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
58.523	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
58.106	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
58.083	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
58.071	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
57.869	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
57.818	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
57.529	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
57.078	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
56.175	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
52.656	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
51.306	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
51.097	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
50.393	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
50.254	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
48.845	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
48.231	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
48.022	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
48.008	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
47.670	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
47.518	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
46.959	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
46.273	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
46.267	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
45.959	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
45.689	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
45.497	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
44.601	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
42.619	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
41.995	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
41.977	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
41.594	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
40.455	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
37.964	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
37.899	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
37.716	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
37.675	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
37.539	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
35.655	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
35.597	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
35.260	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
32.266	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
31.463	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
29.662	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
28.569	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
28.417	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
28.145	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
27.755	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
27.616	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
26.550	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
26.238	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
24.874	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
24.629	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
24.313	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
24.100	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
23.878	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
23.517	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
22.695	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
22.231	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
22.079	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
21.822	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
21.496	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
20.621	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
19.940	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
19.199	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
18.787	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
17.013	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
15.884	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
15.198	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
13.780	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
13.581	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
12.713	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
12.345	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
12.250	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
11.543	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
11.488	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
10.504	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
9.744	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
8.965	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
8.917	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
8.708	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
7.574	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
6.701	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
5.960	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
5.742	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
5.740	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
5.289	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
5.138	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
3.183	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
2.567	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
1.594	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
1.144	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
1.065	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
0.563	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
0.036	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
0.006	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
-0.084	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
-1.643	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-1.749	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-2.538	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-2.655	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-6.110	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-6.936	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-8.382	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-14.932	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-14.951	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-16.263	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-16.951	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-20.604	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-25.088	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-27.584	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-31.922	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-32.138	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-39.159	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-48.076	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-63.230	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-65.417	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-70.036	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-298.235	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary