tetraspace

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.603k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.730	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
100.934	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
98.399	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
95.075	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
86.798	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
82.434	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
79.655	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
78.598	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
75.990	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
67.383	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
67.202	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
65.819	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
65.477	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
65.128	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
64.217	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
63.469	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
62.625	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
61.752	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
59.484	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
58.567	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
58.417	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
58.070	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
56.736	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
56.599	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
51.947	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
50.609	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
49.802	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
48.429	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
48.039	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
47.810	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
46.634	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
43.978	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
42.556	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
42.189	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
41.976	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
40.673	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
38.410	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
37.550	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
37.128	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
35.635	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
35.578	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
35.103	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
34.838	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
32.555	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
32.162	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
31.989	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
26.389	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
25.794	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
25.418	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
25.012	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
24.296	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
23.630	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
21.818	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
20.785	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
20.676	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
20.622	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
18.717	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
18.653	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
17.951	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
17.593	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
16.380	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
15.652	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
14.640	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
12.003	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
11.810	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
10.822	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
10.580	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
9.686	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
8.915	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
8.696	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
8.155	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
6.567	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
3.705	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
2.683	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
0.628	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
0.353	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
0.219	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
-	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-2.910	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
-15.514	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-18.427	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-25.820	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-31.265	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-31.600	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-40.685	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-46.514	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-49.679	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-50.731	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
-51.908	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-128.721	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary