jzima

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

4.314k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
115.826	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
94.877	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
92.348	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
91.707	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
91.401	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
91.293	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
88.658	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
87.679	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
85.772	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
84.722	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
84.694	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
84.334	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
84.044	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
83.533	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
82.124	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
81.893	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
79.366	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
77.190	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
77.190	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
76.487	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
76.397	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
76.053	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
75.024	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
74.700	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
73.831	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
73.495	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
72.198	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
70.962	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
70.730	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
69.826	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
69.688	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
68.016	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
67.931	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
67.839	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
67.795	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
67.748	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
67.707	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
67.696	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
67.314	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
66.876	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
66.675	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
63.719	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
63.376	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
63.011	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
62.469	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
62.091	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
60.875	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
60.011	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
59.159	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
58.977	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
58.465	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
58.445	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
58.164	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
56.036	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
55.286	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
54.843	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
53.232	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
50.189	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
48.831	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
48.453	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
48.331	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
46.283	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
44.194	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
43.868	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
43.360	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
43.057	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
41.852	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
41.695	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
41.311	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
41.052	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
37.933	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
37.609	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
37.557	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
37.549	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
37.036	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
36.898	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
35.511	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
34.450	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
33.645	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
32.608	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
32.393	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
31.927	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
30.997	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
30.815	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
29.494	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
27.977	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
27.093	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
26.294	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
26.247	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
26.180	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
25.596	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
25.207	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
23.092	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
22.217	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
21.904	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
21.456	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
21.193	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
19.767	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
19.551	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
18.171	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
17.917	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
16.599	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
15.531	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
13.748	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
12.705	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
12.143	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
9.853	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
7.803	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
7.658	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
7.135	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
6.771	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
5.155	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
3.618	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
3.429	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
2.058	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
1.743	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
1.636	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
0.689	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
0.526	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
0.014	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-2.234	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-3.277	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
-21.284	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-24.751	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-24.913	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-25.541	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-33.633	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-36.010	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-69.502	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-73.571	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-75.035	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-90.629	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-93.131	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-120.300	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-163.600	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-177.138	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-178.401	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-231.973	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary