Reprisal

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.9k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
104.346	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
98.009	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
93.834	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
93.823	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
92.636	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
92.029	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
89.464	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
89.416	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
89.197	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
88.825	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
88.820	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
88.243	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
88.202	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
86.446	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
85.497	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
83.669	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
83.249	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
82.316	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
78.632	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
77.762	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
75.423	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
71.524	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
71.268	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
70.795	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
64.790	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
64.585	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
63.612	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
63.419	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
63.042	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
61.902	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
60.988	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
60.153	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
58.577	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
58.349	When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?	Continuous
55.471	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
55.110	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
54.324	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
53.976	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
52.315	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
48.313	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
48.220	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
47.672	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
47.553	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
46.324	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
45.888	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
44.847	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
44.277	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
43.867	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
43.190	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
41.628	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
41.547	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
40.824	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
39.931	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
38.985	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
37.556	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
36.960	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
35.599	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
34.530	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
33.878	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
33.202	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
26.619	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
26.134	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
25.002	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
23.283	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
22.466	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
22.424	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
21.645	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
21.181	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
21.045	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
20.365	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
19.420	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
19.050	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
18.765	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
17.775	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
17.588	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
17.441	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
16.080	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
15.182	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
14.541	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
13.595	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
12.767	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
11.419	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
10.654	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
10.441	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
9.446	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
9.418	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
7.428	When will William Barr leave his job as Attorney General of the United States?	Continuous
7.080	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
6.435	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
5.418	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
4.348	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
4.122	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
3.815	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
3.161	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
3.054	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
2.637	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
2.092	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
1.761	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
1.692	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
1.392	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
1.154	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
0.906	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-1.989	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-2.729	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-3.567	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-4.490	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-5.305	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-5.749	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-6.033	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-12.076	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-18.201	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
-21.231	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
-22.782	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-28.784	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-29.767	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-38.388	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
-38.519	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-43.802	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
-47.643	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-70.218	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-74.885	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-77.414	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-90.386	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
-137.449	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-141.693	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
-142.216	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-173.982	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-209.661	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary