jack

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2816	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
143.137	According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have "In Person" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?	Continuous
134.034	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
133.198	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
96.289	How many of Virginia's 35 Local Health Districts will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute identify as being "In Surge" in the slide deck dated 16 June 2021?	Continuous
95.619	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
85.276	Will medical practices overtake pharmacies in total vaccines administered by channel in Virginia prior to 1 July 2021?	Binary
84.511	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
82.659	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
81.972	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
81.609	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?	Continuous
79.275	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?	Continuous
78.858	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
78.691	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
78.369	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
77.676	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
77.481	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
76.549	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
74.137	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
72.914	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
72.613	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
70.599	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
69.225	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
68.602	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?	Continuous
68.483	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?	Continuous
65.054	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
61.945	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
61.116	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
59.630	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
59.425	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
51.130	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?	Continuous
50.138	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
49.628	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
47.263	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
46.510	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
45.929	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
45.705	When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?	Continuous
45.317	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
44.429	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
43.979	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
40.132	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
39.634	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
38.147	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
35.638	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
35.190	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
35.045	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
34.144	How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?	Continuous
34.033	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
32.713	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
32.284	What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?	Continuous
32.052	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
30.189	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
28.934	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
28.525	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
27.689	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
26.409	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
26.408	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
24.521	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
23.490	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
22.277	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
21.988	What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?	Continuous
21.456	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
20.679	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
19.293	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
19.239	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
17.088	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
16.885	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
16.542	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
15.754	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
15.567	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
14.357	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
13.848	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
12.562	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
12.310	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
12.197	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
11.443	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
11.181	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
10.826	When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?	Continuous
9.964	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
9.796	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
9.355	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
9.042	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
9.027	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
8.740	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
8.431	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
7.910	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
7.598	[short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?	Binary
6.900	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
6.302	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
6.288	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
6.213	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
5.652	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
5.376	When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?	Continuous
5.233	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
5.127	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July 2021?	Continuous
4.576	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?	Continuous
4.226	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
4.100	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
3.744	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
3.614	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
3.154	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
2.538	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
2.137	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
2.111	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
2.075	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
1.977	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
1.769	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
1.309	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
1.203	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
1.200	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?	Continuous
0.971	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.960	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
0.611	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
0.478	What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?	Continuous
0.391	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
0.388	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
0.387	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
0.322	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?	Continuous
0.258	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
0.155	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
0.149	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
0.138	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
0.092	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?	Continuous
0.049	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
-0.042	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
-0.059	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?	Continuous
-0.358	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-0.380	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-1.841	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-2.775	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-3.568	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-3.624	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
-5.812	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous
-6.064	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-05-30 and ending on 2021-06-05 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-6.917	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-7.060	Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?	Binary
-7.791	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-9.458	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-12.556	In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?	Continuous
-13.045	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-17.134	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-20.266	Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?	Binary
-20.863	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
-21.859	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-28.975	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-29.847	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?	Continuous
-32.356	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-33.978	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-39.956	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
-48.304	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-55.570	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-61.569	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-71.452	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-109.111	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-128.203	What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?	Continuous
-148.543	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-156.379	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary