galen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

6042	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.923	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
96.505	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
93.756	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
93.587	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
85.466	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
83.857	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
78.542	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
66.103	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
56.220	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
52.567	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
48.558	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6)	Binary
48.081	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
47.989	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
47.703	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4)	Binary
47.422	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
47.325	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5)	Binary
46.983	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
46.021	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2024 or before)	Binary
45.711	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
44.767	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
44.414	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
44.128	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
44.037	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
43.727	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
43.487	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
42.894	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
42.889	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
42.608	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
42.431	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
42.411	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
42.386	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
42.189	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
41.981	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
41.790	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
41.698	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
40.935	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
40.877	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3)	Binary
40.709	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
39.667	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
39.416	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
38.973	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
38.713	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
38.541	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
38.223	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
38.188	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
38.033	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
37.877	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
37.722	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
37.613	Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?	Binary
37.417	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
37.407	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
36.911	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
36.852	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
36.319	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
36.136	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
35.173	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx)	Binary
34.947	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2024)	Binary
34.402	Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?	Binary
34.386	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
34.280	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
34.128	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
33.824	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
33.697	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
33.611	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
33.490	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2)	Binary
32.892	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
32.801	Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
32.794	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
32.791	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
32.789	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
32.778	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
32.771	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
32.764	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
32.691	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
32.681	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
32.653	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
32.648	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
32.617	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
32.610	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
32.596	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
32.564	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
32.540	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
32.527	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
32.493	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
32.491	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
32.489	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
32.405	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
32.363	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
32.349	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
32.295	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
32.160	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
32.116	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
32.004	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
31.943	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
31.873	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
31.729	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
31.659	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
31.659	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia)	Binary
31.556	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
31.423	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever)	Binary
31.157	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
31.145	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream)	Binary
31.103	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco)	Binary
31.080	How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1)	Binary
31.054	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
30.743	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
30.723	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, not optional)	Binary
30.691	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
30.589	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
30.540	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks)	Binary
30.449	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
30.441	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
30.325	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
30.297	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
30.263	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
30.147	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings)	Binary
30.104	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
30.090	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky)	Binary
30.022	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
29.955	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury)	Binary
29.880	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
29.840	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
29.838	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
29.836	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
29.836	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun)	Binary
29.794	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
29.794	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
29.782	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
29.579	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
29.074	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
29.068	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
29.008	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics)	Binary
28.997	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
28.988	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
28.706	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
28.637	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
28.569	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
28.351	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
28.329	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
28.220	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm)	Binary
27.976	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
27.851	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
27.835	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
27.728	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
27.528	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco)	Binary
27.509	Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay)	Binary
27.247	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
26.631	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
26.482	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
26.043	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
25.756	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
25.636	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
25.446	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
25.423	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
24.917	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
24.542	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
24.256	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
24.210	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
23.882	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
23.626	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
22.841	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
22.808	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
21.913	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
21.716	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
20.849	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
19.861	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
19.680	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
18.741	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
18.241	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
17.817	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
17.641	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
17.566	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
16.136	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
16.128	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
15.301	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
14.294	Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?	Binary
14.054	What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024?	Continuous
13.814	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
12.409	Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?	Binary
12.387	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
11.547	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
11.098	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
10.584	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
10.424	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
8.670	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
8.564	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
8.081	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
8.005	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
7.932	What will be the maximum percent of Gallup Coronavirus Pandemic polls respondents who say the pandemic is getting a lot worse in 2023 and 2024?	Continuous
7.869	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
7.784	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
7.729	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
7.403	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
6.910	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
6.841	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
6.841	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
6.834	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
6.686	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
6.577	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
6.559	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
6.520	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
6.510	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
6.351	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
5.637	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
5.469	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
5.196	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
5.139	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
4.999	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
4.784	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
4.753	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
4.742	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
4.544	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
4.474	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
4.221	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
4.020	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
3.912	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
3.606	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
3.417	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
3.205	What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024?	Continuous
3.055	Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
2.917	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
2.842	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
2.797	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
2.674	Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?	Binary
2.379	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
1.732	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
1.506	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
1.500	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)	Binary
1.375	Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
0.591	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
0.154	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-2.638	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-2.666	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-2.798	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-6.510	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-7.725	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
-8.596	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-12.448	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
-12.568	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-15.267	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
-15.922	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-20.112	Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31)	Binary
-21.953	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces)	Binary
-27.963	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-29.761	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
-33.359	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-36.384	Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty)	Binary
-38.834	Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?	Binary
-40.403	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary
-44.647	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
-85.627	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary