| 236.962 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward) | Continuous |
| 233.628 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian) | Continuous |
| 204.874 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 183.092 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green) | Continuous |
| 135.601 | How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 126.975 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 122.974 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 112.235 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 112.072 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 107.406 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 103.745 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 103.571 | On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)? | Continuous |
| 102.196 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 101.438 | What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025) | Continuous |
| 100.429 | What will be the world population in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 99.074 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.810 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 98.593 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 98.431 | When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024) | Binary |
| 97.340 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 96.726 | How many countries will be in OPEC on December 31, 2025? | Continuous |
| 96.454 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 96.400 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 96.316 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 96.245 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 96.125 | Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 95.516 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 95.509 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 95.384 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.380 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.379 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 95.331 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2025) | Binary |
| 95.255 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min) | Continuous |
| 95.170 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 95.005 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 94.848 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 94.719 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 94.509 | If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 93.535 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.490 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 93.142 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 93.067 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 92.717 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 92.535 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 92.484 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 92.301 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 91.281 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.747 | Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026? | Binary |
| 90.301 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 90.256 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 89.285 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.221 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 88.147 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.004 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 86.937 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 86.492 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 86.128 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 85.221 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 84.622 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Green) | Binary |
| 84.622 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (People's) | Binary |
| 84.483 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 84.337 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) | Continuous |
| 84.221 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Bloc Québécois) | Binary |
| 84.125 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 84.086 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 84.064 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (New Democratic) | Binary |
| 83.505 | In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women? | Continuous |
| 83.423 | What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) | Continuous |
| 82.681 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min) | Continuous |
| 82.370 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 81.752 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 81.668 | How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 81.405 | Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025? | Binary |
| 81.283 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 80.938 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 80.628 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 79.696 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Die Linke) | Binary |
| 79.696 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (FDP) | Binary |
| 79.324 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 79.259 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 79.219 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 78.466 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD) | Binary |
| 78.391 | How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States? | Continuous |
| 77.900 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 77.856 | In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 77.116 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 77.071 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min) | Continuous |
| 76.760 | What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 76.452 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 76.106 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (Grüne) | Binary |
| 75.387 | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 74.608 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 73.293 | Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024? | Binary |
| 73.268 | What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 73.191 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.954 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 72.808 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.764 | Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026? | Binary |
| 72.688 | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 71.954 | What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2024) | Continuous |
| 71.882 | Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026? | Binary |
| 71.625 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 71.614 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 71.495 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 71.491 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 71.170 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max) | Continuous |
| 70.604 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 70.202 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 69.834 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 69.504 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 68.510 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 67.967 | How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide? | Continuous |
| 67.907 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.468 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.359 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 67.295 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 67.198 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 67.194 | Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025? | Binary |
| 67.016 | Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? | Binary |
| 66.715 | Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 66.701 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 66.613 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 66.578 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 66.508 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 66.508 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 66.497 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 66.478 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 66.457 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 66.433 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 66.242 | What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2023) | Continuous |
| 66.172 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 65.582 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 65.288 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 65.015 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 64.923 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 64.332 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 64.074 | In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? | Continuous |
| 63.491 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 63.471 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 63.375 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max) | Continuous |
| 63.358 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 63.217 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 63.016 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 62.781 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 62.704 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 62.650 | Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026? | Binary |
| 62.527 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 61.580 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 61.403 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 61.392 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 61.333 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 61.264 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max) | Continuous |
| 61.143 | How many structures will be newly deposited to the Protein Data Bank archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 60.595 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 60.363 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 60.344 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 60.007 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.898 | How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war? | Continuous |
| 59.674 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 59.341 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 58.926 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 58.833 | What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 58.761 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 57.730 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 57.407 | What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)? | Continuous |
| 57.148 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 56.875 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025? | Continuous |
| 56.467 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 56.302 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.806 | Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? | Binary |
| 55.664 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 55.640 | What will the US life expectancy be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 55.594 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? | Binary |
| 55.243 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 54.515 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 53.807 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025? | Continuous |
| 52.888 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | Binary |
| 51.667 | How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus between 2021 to 2025? | Continuous |
| 51.472 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 51.461 | Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026? | Binary |
| 51.246 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 51.208 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 50.996 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 50.818 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation? | Continuous |
| 50.527 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 49.976 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 49.876 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 49.683 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 49.541 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 49.180 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 48.840 | Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026? | Binary |
| 48.735 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 47.399 | What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022? | Continuous |
| 47.025 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 46.522 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 46.335 | Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026? | Binary |
| 46.188 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 46.040 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 45.345 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (SPD) | Binary |
| 45.159 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 44.810 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 44.656 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 43.389 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 43.283 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 43.120 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? | Continuous |
| 43.063 | Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | Binary |
| 42.968 | How many charter cities will exist by 2026? | Continuous |
| 42.555 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 42.516 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 41.361 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.252 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| 41.128 | In 2025, will code generating AI have been pre-trained on a natural language corpus? | Binary |
| 41.025 | How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year? | Continuous |
| 40.564 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.980 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 38.535 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 38.464 | What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)? | Continuous |
| 38.062 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.923 | How many confirmed children will Elon Musk have by end of 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.609 | Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025? | Binary |
| 37.550 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 37.393 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 37.234 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 37.210 | What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report? | Continuous |
| 36.952 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 36.865 | What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.584 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025? | Continuous |
| 36.440 | When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa? | Continuous |
| 36.350 | What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.315 | What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.290 | Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026? | Binary |
| 36.152 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | Continuous |
| 36.065 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 35.871 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 35.800 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.671 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 35.378 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 34.427 | Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities? | Binary |
| 33.395 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 32.845 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 32.497 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 31.275 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024) | Continuous |
| 31.114 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 31.101 | What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2025) | Continuous |
| 30.778 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 30.289 | What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 30.282 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 30.252 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 29.673 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 29.617 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.332 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 29.118 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 28.813 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 28.619 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 28.117 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 27.937 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2026) | Continuous |
| 27.418 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 27.382 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 27.263 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 27.262 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 27.169 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025? | Continuous |
| 27.143 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 26.253 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 26.066 | What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025? | Continuous |
| 25.442 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| 25.383 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 24.955 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 23.852 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 23.497 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 22.643 | What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 21.939 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 21.707 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.650 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 21.310 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.221 | Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (CDU/CSU) | Binary |
| 21.135 | Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026? | Binary |
| 20.642 | How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA? | Continuous |
| 20.092 | What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.784 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 19.604 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 19.543 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 18.686 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 18.416 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 18.370 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Liberal) | Binary |
| 17.957 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 17.772 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 17.346 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.264 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 16.813 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.301 | How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? | Continuous |
| 16.127 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 15.275 | Which party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election? (Conservative) | Binary |
| 14.733 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.952 | Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026? | Binary |
| 13.642 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 13.207 | How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? | Continuous |
| 12.813 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 12.184 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 11.883 | When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate? | Continuous |
| 11.638 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 11.577 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 11.540 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.413 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.272 | When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? | Continuous |
| 10.218 | Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election? | Binary |
| 10.078 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 9.137 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 8.879 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 8.382 | Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.266 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 7.135 | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.179 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.633 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 5.594 | Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? | Binary |
| 5.582 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? | Continuous |
| 5.093 | Will the Global Partnership on AI be active by the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 4.136 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 3.970 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| 3.466 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 3.415 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| 3.255 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 2.600 | Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025? | Binary |
| 2.227 | When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? | Continuous |
| 1.421 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted) | Continuous |
| 1.181 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 1.101 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 0.874 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang) | Binary |
| 0.274 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (1: Candidacy recommended) | Continuous |
| 0.235 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| -1.019 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -1.201 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| -2.219 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| -2.299 | What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -2.456 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -2.564 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
| -2.878 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -3.843 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
| -4.498 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -5.013 | When will used/pre-owned RTX30 series Nvidia GPUs suitable for deep learning sell below retail price? | Continuous |
| -5.157 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -5.677 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States) | Binary |
| -5.981 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -6.068 | What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025) | Continuous |
| -6.611 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| -6.758 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| -6.807 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| -7.367 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -7.381 | Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025? | Binary |
| -7.506 | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (October 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| -8.575 | What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022? | Continuous |
| -9.265 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -9.329 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| -9.695 | Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family? | Binary |
| -10.185 | Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? | Binary |
| -11.399 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| -11.833 | What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -13.031 | BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? | Binary |
| -13.414 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
| -13.680 | Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| -14.037 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -14.266 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| -14.384 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025? | Continuous |
| -15.587 | Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026? | Binary |
| -16.229 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| -16.613 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -17.890 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -18.649 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| -18.685 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -18.691 | How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025? | Continuous |
| -19.121 | Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)? | Binary |
| -19.276 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -22.292 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| -23.290 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -25.017 | What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2025) | Continuous |
| -28.444 | How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021? | Continuous |
| -29.924 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -30.377 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -32.682 | What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2024) | Continuous |
| -33.976 | When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000? | Continuous |
| -35.812 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -38.313 | What will the enacted budget for the National Health Service Corps be in FY 2024? | Continuous |
| -39.005 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -39.923 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -40.321 | Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026? | Binary |
| -42.767 | How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025? | Continuous |
| -51.691 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2022-2024? | Continuous |
| -54.149 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -54.269 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -59.732 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| -64.135 | Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026? | Binary |
| -66.626 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024) | Binary |
| -68.036 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -69.500 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -77.660 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -89.837 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -102.497 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| -104.689 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| -105.215 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -116.653 | Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026? | Binary |
| -130.911 | Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| -134.231 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Trabucco) | Binary |
| -151.415 | What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? | Continuous |
| -155.055 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | Continuous |
| -156.645 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -161.822 | What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -174.030 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -175.529 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| -192.396 | When will Moscow (stock) Exchange reopen its stock and derivative markets to both Russians and foreigners? | Continuous |
| -192.927 | When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? | Continuous |
| -200.737 | If Labor wins the next Australian election, what will the Reserve Bank's cash rate target be in June 2025? | Continuous |
| -210.078 | When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? | Continuous |
| -215.378 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |