Sergio

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2023-24

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

8946	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
205.296	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
167.030	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
151.328	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
148.095	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
146.324	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
145.481	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
139.568	When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19)	Continuous
134.428	Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined)	Continuous
120.109	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined)	Continuous
117.993	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
117.108	COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19)	Continuous
116.340	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois)	Continuous
115.321	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida)	Continuous
114.036	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
112.863	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
112.171	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
111.959	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
111.955	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California)	Continuous
111.791	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
111.659	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado)	Continuous
111.549	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas)	Continuous
110.826	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
110.179	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York)	Continuous
106.536	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington)	Continuous
105.054	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
101.098	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
99.159	Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?	Binary
98.774	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
98.519	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
98.499	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu)	Continuous
97.881	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
97.651	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
97.590	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
97.383	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
96.901	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
95.820	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
95.212	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
95.037	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
93.972	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
93.806	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
93.737	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
93.675	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
93.624	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
93.497	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
91.925	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
91.844	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
91.067	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
90.847	Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?	Binary
90.748	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
89.924	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
89.694	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
89.287	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
89.209	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
88.480	In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won? (2024 or before)	Binary
87.644	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
86.619	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
85.694	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
85.229	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
85.164	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
84.567	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
83.639	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
82.229	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
81.290	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
79.827	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
79.631	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
79.605	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
78.822	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
77.555	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
77.265	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
74.879	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
74.770	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
74.149	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
72.385	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
71.816	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
71.444	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
71.378	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024)	Continuous
69.023	Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
68.877	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
66.888	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
63.177	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
62.596	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
62.069	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
61.695	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
61.525	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
60.508	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
60.020	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
58.741	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
58.137	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
56.801	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
56.446	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
56.103	Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?	Binary
51.198	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
49.988	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
49.265	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
47.049	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
46.814	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri)	Continuous
45.262	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
44.406	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
44.287	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta)	Binary
43.740	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
42.758	Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?	Binary
41.593	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024)	Continuous
41.272	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection)	Binary
41.104	Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
40.960	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
40.385	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024)	Continuous
37.828	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
37.150	What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV)	Continuous
36.442	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
33.115	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024)	Continuous
31.725	By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus? (2025)	Binary
31.144	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024))	Continuous
28.350	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
27.504	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
27.000	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
25.932	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
25.262	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
24.223	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
24.010	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
23.456	How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season?	Continuous
21.469	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
21.142	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024))	Continuous
20.942	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
19.523	How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024))	Continuous
19.388	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
18.739	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
16.768	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
12.576	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
10.450	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
10.360	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
9.976	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
8.672	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
8.627	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
8.544	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
8.476	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
7.121	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
6.161	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
4.959	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes)	Binary
4.309	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes)	Binary
3.233	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
2.185	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic)	Binary
1.974	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
1.688	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
1.505	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
1.187	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
-0.204	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
-1.143	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-2.292	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-5.108	Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?	Binary
-6.500	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
-8.539	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
-13.380	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No)	Binary
-14.277	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-16.657	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
-19.833	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-28.434	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-37.873	What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2023)	Continuous
-38.683	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-45.588	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
-48.651	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
-67.321	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
-71.190	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Input (8K context))	Continuous
-82.087	How much will 1K GPT-4 API tokens cost in January 2025? (Output (8K context))	Continuous
-94.071	Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-97.763	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI)	Binary
-107.533	Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)	Binary
-138.575	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025)	Binary