Cosmic

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2722	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
91.541	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
89.794	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
89.068	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
78.966	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
78.366	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
77.394	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
77.071	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
76.506	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
76.504	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
76.064	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
76.063	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
76.063	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
76.063	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
76.061	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
76.061	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
76.060	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
76.059	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
76.052	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
70.959	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
69.463	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
68.923	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
66.162	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
63.754	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
63.609	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
63.046	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
62.355	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
58.228	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
57.962	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
57.473	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
54.980	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
54.053	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
52.301	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
51.709	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
50.234	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
49.046	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
48.778	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
48.446	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
47.884	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
47.871	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
47.859	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
47.233	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
47.230	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
44.744	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
44.016	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
43.596	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
43.591	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
43.044	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
43.043	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
42.570	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
40.671	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
40.639	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
40.253	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
39.049	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
37.823	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
36.776	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
34.094	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
33.916	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
33.914	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
33.472	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
33.472	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
33.472	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
33.469	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
33.469	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
33.468	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
33.468	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
33.468	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
33.467	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
33.467	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
33.291	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
32.929	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
30.989	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
30.771	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
29.550	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
29.483	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
28.026	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
27.349	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
25.085	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
24.200	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
22.997	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
22.531	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
21.705	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
21.094	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
20.496	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.464	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
19.004	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
17.647	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
17.600	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
15.666	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
15.531	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
14.283	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
14.180	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
12.259	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
11.700	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
10.075	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
9.870	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
9.807	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
9.697	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
9.552	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
8.623	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
7.833	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
7.185	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
7.122	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
6.929	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
6.929	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
6.911	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
6.398	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
5.708	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
5.317	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
4.717	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
3.436	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
2.721	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
2.607	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
2.583	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
2.524	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
2.507	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
2.473	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
2.420	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
2.412	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
2.374	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
2.342	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
2.338	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
2.317	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
2.264	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
2.263	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
2.257	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
2.253	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
2.231	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
2.202	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.105	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
2.074	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
2.020	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
1.998	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
1.785	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
1.001	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
0.873	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.830	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
0.712	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
0.061	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
-0.331	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-1.475	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
-11.657	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.658	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-71.119	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
-175.280	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-193.990	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-204.321	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-224.053	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-254.753	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-297.204	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-318.202	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary