SpeedingNeutrino

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6718	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
144.557	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
131.885	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
122.721	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
117.590	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
116.146	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
99.208	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
98.357	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
97.955	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
97.238	Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?	Binary
95.501	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
94.793	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
94.728	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
92.659	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
92.133	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
91.425	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
90.871	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
90.345	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
88.969	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
88.244	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
87.419	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
87.140	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
86.596	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)	Binary
86.276	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
85.588	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
83.427	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
82.718	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
81.707	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
81.301	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
81.195	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
81.020	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
81.000	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
80.753	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
80.302	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
80.086	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
80.054	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
79.933	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
79.599	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
78.741	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
76.135	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
75.996	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
75.802	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
75.784	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
75.462	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
74.862	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
72.507	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
72.096	Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?	Binary
71.304	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
70.634	What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?	Continuous
70.435	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
70.160	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
69.192	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
68.898	Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?	Binary
68.752	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
68.468	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
67.759	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
67.430	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
67.061	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
66.756	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q2 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
66.182	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
65.841	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)	Binary
65.365	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
64.791	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
64.409	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
64.400	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
64.399	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
63.838	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
63.554	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
62.725	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
62.355	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
62.341	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
60.922	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
60.694	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
60.644	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
60.504	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
60.189	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
59.717	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
59.676	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
59.557	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
59.509	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
58.819	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
57.853	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
57.709	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
57.191	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
56.559	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
55.951	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
54.378	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
53.180	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
52.721	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
52.517	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
51.642	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kostiantynivka)	Binary
51.374	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
51.293	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
51.160	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
50.834	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Kupyansk)	Binary
50.642	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
50.377	How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?	Multiple Choice
50.232	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
50.063	Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?	Binary
50.063	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
49.928	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
49.928	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
49.928	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
49.833	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
49.763	Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?	Binary
49.426	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
48.355	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
47.803	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
47.686	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
47.455	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
47.303	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
47.076	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
46.905	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
46.795	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
45.975	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
45.927	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
45.624	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
45.403	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
44.702	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (July 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
44.661	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
44.554	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
44.490	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
44.483	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
44.476	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
44.040	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
43.568	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
43.323	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
43.197	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
43.128	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
42.682	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
42.393	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
42.392	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
42.343	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
42.167	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
42.040	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
42.037	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
41.534	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
41.527	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
41.311	When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?	Continuous
41.211	Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?	Binary
41.021	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
40.869	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
40.675	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
40.367	Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?	Binary
40.226	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
39.648	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
39.602	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
39.530	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
39.523	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
39.209	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
39.158	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
38.410	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
38.211	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
37.777	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
37.592	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
37.006	Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?	Binary
36.917	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
36.809	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
36.677	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
36.285	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
36.072	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
36.072	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
36.019	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
35.582	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
35.286	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
34.856	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
34.726	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
34.430	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
33.920	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
33.904	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
33.630	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
33.611	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
33.138	Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?	Binary
32.113	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
31.953	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
31.262	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
30.426	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
30.317	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
29.805	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
28.896	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
28.808	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
28.612	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
28.081	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
27.922	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
27.787	Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?	Binary
27.327	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
27.288	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
27.106	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
26.822	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
26.739	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
26.725	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
26.581	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
25.879	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
25.662	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
25.427	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
25.424	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
25.067	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
24.989	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
24.910	Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?	Binary
24.760	Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?	Binary
24.012	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
22.774	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
22.677	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
22.382	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
22.268	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
21.671	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.547	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
21.353	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
21.071	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
21.061	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
19.899	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
19.792	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Jul 21 - Aug 1)	Continuous
19.462	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
19.445	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Myrnohrad)	Binary
19.359	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
19.336	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
19.205	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
18.841	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
17.527	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
17.436	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
17.197	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
16.985	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
16.960	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
16.630	Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?	Binary
16.131	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
15.500	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
15.344	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
15.179	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
14.883	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
14.771	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
14.088	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
14.085	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
13.938	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
13.924	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
13.654	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
13.303	Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?	Binary
13.111	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
12.004	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.559	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
11.474	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
11.474	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
11.179	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
9.736	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
9.496	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
9.031	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
8.803	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
8.774	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
8.487	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
8.199	Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?	Binary
7.635	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
7.561	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
7.253	How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?	Continuous
6.916	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
6.875	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
6.735	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
6.426	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
5.196	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
4.761	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
4.558	When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Winners announced!)	Continuous
4.382	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
4.252	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
4.115	What will the first reported earnings per share after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
3.412	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
3.275	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
3.046	Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?	Binary
3.042	What will be the rank of Assassin's Creed Shadows on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers chart for March 18 - 25, 2025?	Multiple Choice
2.627	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
2.421	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
2.412	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
1.935	What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?	Continuous
1.765	What will the first reported revenues after June 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
1.679	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
1.422	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
1.388	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
1.008	Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?	Binary
-	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
-	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-0.776	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
-1.797	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-2.494	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 1 - Sep 12)	Continuous
-5.783	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-5.876	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-6.217	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Samoan general election?	Multiple Choice
-7.450	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
-8.276	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
-10.001	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-10.387	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-10.439	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
-10.799	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-11.378	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
-12.611	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-12.877	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
-12.987	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-13.909	How many earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4 will happen near Santorini, Greece in the first week of March, 2025?	Continuous
-14.243	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
-14.588	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
-14.604	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
-16.096	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
-16.570	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-16.898	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-17.375	When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?	Continuous
-17.570	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
-18.064	How many people will participate in US strikes beginning August 2025?	Continuous
-18.538	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-20.001	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
-21.809	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
-22.119	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
-22.122	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
-22.811	Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?	Binary
-23.356	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-23.607	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
-24.948	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-25.836	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-27.673	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-28.367	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-28.504	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
-28.783	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
-29.128	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-29.625	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-29.690	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-30.063	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
-30.575	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
-30.575	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
-34.492	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-34.593	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 4 - Aug 15)	Continuous
-41.825	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-42.163	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-42.326	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-44.745	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
-45.081	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-49.482	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-51.085	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
-54.283	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
-55.206	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-58.118	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
-58.658	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
-59.918	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
-60.100	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
-69.630	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-70.027	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-71.019	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
-75.572	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-79.104	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-83.951	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)	Binary
-85.985	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-87.033	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-88.006	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (ARES)	Binary
-92.911	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-102.385	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-107.661	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
-115.983	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-116.396	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
-119.136	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-120.530	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-127.569	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-146.852	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-158.992	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-161.067	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-168.600	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-170.164	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-183.051	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
-186.081	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
-208.727	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (CVNA)	Binary
-212.146	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-833.975	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary