AlexK864

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3114	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
139.551	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
123.956	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
122.110	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
100.129	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
97.587	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
93.919	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
93.672	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
90.847	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
90.131	Which country will win the most medals at the 2025 World Games?	Multiple Choice
86.277	On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?	Continuous
85.730	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
82.625	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
82.473	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
81.586	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
81.316	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
80.080	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
79.683	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
78.943	Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?	Binary
77.313	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
76.866	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
75.712	Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?	Binary
75.603	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 16 - June 20)	Continuous
75.020	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
74.958	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
73.591	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
71.188	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
68.606	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
63.637	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
63.488	How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?	Continuous
62.829	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
61.686	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
60.835	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
60.140	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (June 2 - June 6)	Continuous
60.137	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
59.760	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
58.542	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
57.174	What will be the value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Mainland China in June 2025?	Continuous
54.345	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
54.135	How many new inscriptions will UNESCO add to the World Heritage List at their 2025 session?	Continuous
53.832	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
53.746	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 19 - May 23)	Continuous
50.123	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
50.019	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
49.469	Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?	Binary
49.020	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
47.502	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 27)	Continuous
46.478	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
45.710	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
41.960	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
41.717	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
41.668	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
40.162	Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?	Binary
39.474	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
36.403	Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?	Binary
35.711	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
35.173	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 30)	Continuous
33.010	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
32.431	Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?	Multiple Choice
30.255	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.446	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
28.305	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
26.665	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
25.754	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
25.619	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
25.420	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
25.401	What defence spending target will NATO agree to at their 2025 summit?	Multiple Choice
24.443	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (June 13)	Continuous
19.920	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.905	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, June 2025)	Binary
19.725	How much additional photovoltaic capacity will China install during July 2025?	Continuous
19.212	What will be the Euro Area's annual inflation rate in July 2025?	Multiple Choice
19.001	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, June 2025)	Binary
17.554	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
16.844	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
16.796	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
15.393	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 16 - Jun 27)	Binary
15.383	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
15.312	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
15.194	[Short fuse] How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?	Continuous
14.864	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
12.501	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
12.410	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
12.134	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
11.532	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
11.405	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
8.021	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
7.171	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 16 - June 27)	Binary
6.053	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
5.808	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
5.446	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
5.253	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, June 2025)	Binary
5.154	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.846	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
2.406	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
0.833	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
0.314	Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?	Binary
0.186	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
0.032	What will be the change in the OPEC+ production target for September 2025?	Continuous
0.003	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
-3.445	Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?	Binary
-4.579	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
-4.883	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-5.737	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 19 - May 30)	Binary
-9.367	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-9.584	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (COIN)	Binary
-10.031	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-13.506	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-16.224	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
-17.401	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (June 2 - June 13)	Binary
-19.422	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
-23.722	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-27.113	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
-27.831	Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?	Binary
-28.170	What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?	Continuous
-29.231	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-37.769	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Jun 2 - Jun 13)	Binary
-40.821	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-45.855	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-48.488	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-49.061	Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?	Binary
-61.657	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-65.766	What will be the highest earthquake magnitude recorded during July 2025?	Continuous
-72.377	Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?	Binary
-82.131	Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025? (Pokrovsk)	Binary
-88.298	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-112.541	Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?	Binary
-121.461	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-476.142	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary