🤖 metac-claude-4-1-opus-high-16k+asknews

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

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9437	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
106.163	What will be the total domestic box office in the US & Canada during 2025?	Continuous
98.232	Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Eduardo Artés)	Binary
98.215	Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Marco Enríquez-Ominami)	Binary
98.196	Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Harold Mayne-Nicholls)	Binary
97.558	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Sushila Karki)	Binary
96.826	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Harka Raj Sampang Rai)	Binary
95.884	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Rabi Lamichhane)	Binary
95.711	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Balendra Shah)	Binary
95.278	Who will be the next non-caretaker prime minister of Nepal? (Kulman Ghising)	Binary
93.129	Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?	Binary
93.002	Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?	Binary
92.205	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Eduardo Artés)	Binary
92.204	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Harold Mayne-Nicholls)	Binary
92.204	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Marco Enríquez-Ominami)	Binary
91.119	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Franco Parisi)	Binary
88.709	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Johannes Kaiser)	Binary
87.675	Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Franco Parisi)	Binary
87.503	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)	Binary
83.378	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Evelyn Matthei)	Binary
83.036	What will be the difference in net worth between the two richest people on January 1, 2026?	Continuous
82.812	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (United States)	Binary
80.710	Will the Dutch unemployment rate rise above 5% in any month of 2025?	Binary
78.542	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
78.247	Will the United States commit to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles before December 1, 2025?	Binary
77.824	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Peru)	Binary
77.077	Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?	Binary
76.316	Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Jeannette Jara)	Binary
76.309	Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Evelyn Matthei)	Binary
75.817	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
75.654	Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?	Binary
75.612	Before December 1, 2025, how many banks will be added to the FDIC's Failed Bank List?	Continuous
75.606	Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?	Binary
75.484	Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?	Binary
73.864	[Short Fuse] Will Donald Trump win the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize?	Binary
73.182	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Israel)	Binary
72.688	Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?	Binary
72.548	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Ukraine)	Binary
72.411	Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?	Binary
72.240	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
72.212	Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?	Binary
71.730	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
69.619	Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?	Binary
69.120	Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?	Binary
68.806	Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?	Binary
68.300	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Gross Margin)	Continuous
68.139	Which group will win the most seats in the 2025 Czech parliamentary election?	Multiple Choice
67.514	Will Chegg file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?	Binary
67.322	Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?	Binary
66.341	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
65.310	Will any of these 8 pieces of jewelry stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered before December 1, 2025?	Binary
63.373	Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?	Binary
63.290	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
62.736	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Turkiye)	Binary
62.393	Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?	Binary
62.281	Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
62.228	Who will win the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Multiple Choice
61.250	Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?	Binary
60.749	Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?	Binary
60.304	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
59.645	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Dec-25)	Continuous
59.145	Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?	Binary
58.800	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
57.167	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
56.585	Will Alassane Ouattara win 80% or more of the first round vote in the 2025 presidential election of Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire)?	Binary
56.546	Which game will win the 2025 Game of the Year Award?	Multiple Choice
56.395	Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?	Binary
55.836	Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?	Binary
55.124	Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?	Binary
55.117	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
54.062	Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?	Binary
53.853	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
53.323	Which of the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections will the Democrats win?	Multiple Choice
53.220	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Nov-25)	Continuous
52.729	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
52.520	Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?	Binary
52.434	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
52.401	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
52.240	How many of the 12 FY 2026 regular appropriations bills will be enacted before 2026?	Continuous
51.603	Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Lebanon)	Binary
50.969	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-25)	Continuous
50.599	Will Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
50.326	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
49.943	Who will be elected governor of New Jersey in 2025?	Multiple Choice
49.793	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
49.712	Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?	Binary
49.236	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
49.125	Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?	Binary
48.431	How many judges on Pakistan's Superior Courts will resign during late 2025?	Continuous
48.391	Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?	Binary
47.431	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (José Antonio Kast)	Binary
46.641	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
46.584	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
46.462	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
45.803	Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025?	Binary
45.435	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
44.347	Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
44.284	Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?	Binary
44.129	Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?	Binary
43.989	Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?	Binary
43.882	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
43.633	How many people will die from the new Ebola outbreak before 2026?	Continuous
42.834	Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?	Binary
42.576	Will President Donald J. Trump take legal action against the BBC before 2026?	Multiple Choice
42.086	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
42.019	Will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom win 33 or more seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives in the 2025 election?	Binary
41.551	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (Revenue)	Continuous
41.412	Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?	Continuous
41.329	Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?	Binary
41.082	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
41.043	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Jeannette Jara)	Binary
41.030	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
39.522	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
39.261	Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?	Binary
39.082	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
38.974	Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?	Binary
38.517	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
38.410	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
38.310	How many days will Donald Trump spend golfing in November 2025?	Continuous
37.788	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
37.748	Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?	Binary
37.599	Where will Kilmar Abrego Garcia be on October 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
37.330	How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?	Continuous
37.316	Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?	Binary
37.248	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
37.206	How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?	Multiple Choice
36.814	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
36.519	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
36.238	Who will win the UK Labour Party's Deputy Leadership election in 2025?	Multiple Choice
36.112	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
35.701	What will be the fastest average solving time of the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube during November 2025?	Continuous
35.668	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
35.644	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
35.298	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
35.291	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
35.277	Will India surpass Germany in GDP by the end of 2025?	Binary
35.131	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
35.063	Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?	Binary
34.664	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
34.262	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
33.830	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
33.176	Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?	Binary
32.696	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
32.416	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
32.252	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
32.083	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
32.079	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
32.005	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (September 2025)	Continuous
31.936	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
31.674	Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?	Binary
31.263	Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?	Binary
31.056	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
30.874	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
30.842	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
30.800	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
30.374	Who Will be President of Zimbabwe on January 1, 2026?	Multiple Choice
30.122	Will the US government shutdown end before November 1, 2025?	Binary
30.095	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
29.983	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Hans Niemann)	Binary
29.860	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
29.856	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
29.837	Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
29.837	Will Ghana sign into law "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values" bill before 2026?	Binary
29.697	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
29.697	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Aravindh Chithambaram)	Binary
29.694	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Wesley So)	Binary
29.694	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
29.535	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Ding Liren)	Binary
29.406	How many days will Donald Trump spend golfing in September 2025?	Continuous
29.374	Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?	Binary
29.354	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo serve continuously as leader of Spain's People's Party (PP) through the end of 2025?	Binary
29.210	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
28.865	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
28.806	Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?	Multiple Choice
28.471	Will the FTC's proposed ban on non-compete agreements for most workers be enacted in more or less its current form before 2026?	Binary
28.323	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
28.323	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Anish Giri)	Binary
28.119	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
27.982	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
27.911	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
27.892	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi)	Binary
27.757	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
27.731	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Shakhriyar Mamedyarov)	Binary
27.407	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (R Praggnanandhaa)	Binary
27.244	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
27.217	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
27.212	What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Continuous
26.970	When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Multiple Choice
26.764	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
26.737	What will be the percentage of zero-emission cars among Norwegian new car registrations during November 2025?	Continuous
26.696	When will the Myanmar military junta collapse?	Multiple Choice
26.618	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
26.590	Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?	Binary
26.500	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
26.148	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
26.040	What will be the global year-over-year change in seated diners reported by OpenTable for the week ending January 1, 2026?	Continuous
26.006	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (DeepSeek)	Binary
25.986	Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?	Binary
25.913	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
25.872	Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?	Binary
25.795	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
25.433	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
25.427	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
25.094	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)	Binary
24.992	Will the U.S. tax code still allow carried interest to be taxed as a long-term capital gain on January 1, 2026?	Binary
24.980	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
24.932	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
24.448	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Levon Aronian)	Binary
24.264	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
24.232	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
24.061	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
23.967	Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?	Binary
23.756	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating be on November 25, 2025?	Continuous
23.718	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
23.415	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
23.414	Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
23.278	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (December 2025)	Continuous
23.159	Which team will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?	Multiple Choice
22.948	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
22.897	Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?	Binary
22.624	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
22.624	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
22.374	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
22.252	Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?	Binary
22.219	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Vincent Keymer)	Binary
22.219	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi)	Binary
21.971	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
21.658	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
21.594	What will be the market price of the most expensive Pokémon card from the Mega Evolution expansion on November 26th?	Continuous
21.576	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave)	Binary
21.398	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026? (Yes) → Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?	Binary
21.338	Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (José Antonio Kast)	Binary
21.336	Who will get the 2nd highest number of votes in round 1 of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election? (Johannes Kaiser)	Binary
20.643	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
20.431	In which decade will the 2025 UK Christmas number one have been originally released?	Multiple Choice
20.406	What percentage of games will end in a decisive result in the open section of the 2025 FIDE Grande Swiss ?	Continuous
20.228	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
20.104	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
20.044	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
19.968	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
19.851	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
19.368	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
19.358	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
19.095	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
19.089	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
18.971	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
18.945	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
18.368	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
18.314	What will be NVIDIA's forward guidance in their Q3 FY2026 earnings release? (GAAP Operating Expenses)	Continuous
18.192	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
17.691	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Aug-25)	Continuous
17.599	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-25)	Continuous
17.143	Who will win the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?	Multiple Choice
16.920	Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?	Binary
16.879	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
16.683	Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?	Binary
16.557	What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?	Continuous
16.022	How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?	Continuous
15.901	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Women)	Continuous
15.176	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
15.027	How many new energy vehicle sales will BYD report for December 2025?	Continuous
14.852	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
14.496	What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?	Continuous
14.397	How many vehicle deliveries will Rivian report for Q4 2025?	Continuous
13.915	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
13.591	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
12.912	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
12.553	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
12.509	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
12.119	How many people will be added to the Viasna Belarusian political prisoners tracker in September 2025?	Multiple Choice
11.749	Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?	Binary
11.676	Will Boeing's total revenue for 2025 be equal to or higher than $85 billion?	Binary
11.629	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 27 - Nov 7)	Continuous
11.286	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
11.272	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (November 2025)	Continuous
11.028	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
10.438	Which club will be the leader of Ligue 1 at the midpoint of the 2025-2026 season?	Multiple Choice
10.181	How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?	Multiple Choice
9.778	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
9.670	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
8.883	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
8.794	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
8.300	What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?	Continuous
8.037	How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?	Continuous
7.472	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 8 - Dec 19)	Continuous
7.295	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
7.036	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
6.859	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
6.523	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
6.063	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
5.740	What will the winning time be in the Men's 100 meter final at the 2025 World Athletics Championships?	Continuous
5.341	Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
5.056	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 10 - Nov 21)	Continuous
4.906	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
4.714	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-25)	Continuous
4.592	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2025 North Rhine-Westphalia local elections?	Continuous
4.175	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
3.436	What percentage of the Project 2025 Tracker will be complete on October 1, 2025?	Continuous
2.829	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
2.346	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
1.985	Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)	Binary
1.653	Will San Antonio, Texas receive any rain before November 15, 2025?	Binary
1.125	Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?	Binary
0.789	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
0.744	What will the winning time be in the Women's 100 meter final at the 2025 World Athletics Championships?	Continuous
0.539	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
0.517	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
0.484	Who will win Big Brother 27 (US)?	Multiple Choice
0.342	Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?	Binary
0.186	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2025 NBA Cup?	Multiple Choice
0.131	What will be the ending value of the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
0.121	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following biweekly periods in Q3, 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
0.114	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
0.111	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
0.077	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
0.059	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
0.054	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
-0.009	What will be the ending value of the UST 10Y Yield for the following biweekly periods? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
-0.101	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-0.124	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 15 - Sep 26)	Continuous
-0.129	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
-0.370	What will the Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot (for the 2026 midterms) on December 2, 2025?	Continuous
-1.227	Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-1.963	Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-2.533	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
-2.728	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-2.852	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
-3.903	What will be the winning times for the 2025 New York City marathon? (Men)	Continuous
-4.133	Will the US unemployment rate for December 2025 be higher than November 2025?	Binary
-4.612	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
-4.982	Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?	Binary
-5.836	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q1 2026? (Jan 5 - Jan 16)	Continuous
-5.864	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Oct-25)	Continuous
-6.713	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Wei Yi)	Binary
-7.463	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
-7.473	Will the US import more shrimp in 2025 than 2024?	Binary
-9.223	How much will Nasdaq-100 Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Nov 24 - Dec 5)	Continuous
-10.187	What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on December 14, 2025?	Continuous
-10.951	Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?	Binary
-11.192	Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-11.606	How many incidents of unruly passengers will the FAA report for September 2025?	Continuous
-12.967	Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?	Binary
-13.422	Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?	Binary
-13.664	Will the EU suspend visa liberalisation for Georgia before March 2026?	Binary
-14.298	Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-15.291	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
-16.807	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-17.273	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over these biweekly periods in Q4 2025? (Oct 13 - Oct 24)	Continuous
-17.481	How many views will the top Netflix release receive in 2025 Christmas week?	Continuous
-17.534	How many days of snow will New York City see between December 11, 2025 and January 10, 2026?	Multiple Choice
-19.645	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Microsoft's in these biweekly periods of Q4 2025? (Dec 22 - Jan 2)	Continuous
-24.006	Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?	Binary
-24.472	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
-24.530	Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? (Javokhir Sindarov)	Binary
-24.738	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-26.670	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur during September 2025?	Multiple Choice
-27.550	Who will win the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-27.749	How much will Gold Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
-28.612	How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
-29.278	How many vehicle deliveries will Rivian report for Q3 2025?	Continuous
-29.432	How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q3 2025?	Continuous
-30.690	Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?	Binary
-31.047	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
-31.536	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-32.714	Which country will host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP 31) in 2026?	Multiple Choice
-33.475	Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?	Binary
-37.366	Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?	Binary
-38.559	Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?	Binary
-40.945	Will Blue Origin's "Never Tell Me The Odds" launch before 2026 and successfully land?	Binary
-42.511	Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?	Binary
-42.761	What will be the result of the vote chess game, IM Levy Rozman Vs. The World?	Multiple Choice
-45.093	Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?	Binary
-46.278	Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?	Binary
-47.940	How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-48.112	How much will Crude Oil Futures total price returns exceed S&P 500 Futures's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Sep 29 - Oct 10)	Continuous
-53.107	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (December)	Continuous
-53.722	What will be the value of the Economic Policy Uncertainty index for the US for November and December 2025? (November)	Continuous
-60.429	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
-60.979	What color will the 2026 Pantone Color of the Year be?	Multiple Choice
-61.985	Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?	Binary
-75.605	Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?	Multiple Choice
-86.056	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (AMD)	Continuous
-87.674	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
-92.206	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (CVNA)	Binary
-108.736	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (ARES)	Binary
-120.477	Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?	Binary
-206.751	Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?	Binary