gjm

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016-20

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.03	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
70.523	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
69.340	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
62.369	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
57.419	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
51.306	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
45.693	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
44.023	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
43.734	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
40.204	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
39.273	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
39.065	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
36.510	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
35.700	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
35.377	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
35.242	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
34.925	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
34.563	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
33.876	How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?	Continuous
33.664	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
33.641	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
32.873	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
30.165	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
28.193	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
27.002	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
26.782	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
26.508	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
26.115	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
24.897	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
22.332	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
22.291	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
22.180	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
21.871	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
21.134	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
20.507	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
20.017	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
19.190	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
19.163	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
18.300	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
18.248	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
18.193	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
16.700	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
16.651	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
16.117	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
15.977	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
15.751	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
15.523	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
14.857	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
14.851	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
14.838	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
14.341	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
13.148	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
13.019	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
12.904	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
12.700	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
12.482	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
12.305	How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?	Continuous
12.172	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
11.966	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
11.950	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
11.891	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
11.823	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
11.771	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
11.025	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
10.897	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
10.532	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
9.980	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
9.288	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
8.807	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
8.714	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
8.412	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
8.397	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
8.242	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
8.207	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
8.103	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
7.944	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
7.629	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
7.444	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
7.415	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
7.335	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
7.032	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
6.666	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
6.243	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
6.165	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
6.108	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
5.676	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
5.580	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
5.373	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
5.259	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
5.169	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
5.131	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
5.073	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
4.492	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
4.094	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
4.069	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
3.816	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
3.786	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
3.596	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
3.468	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
3.433	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
3.133	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
2.459	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
2.196	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
2.094	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
2.041	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
1.867	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
1.795	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
1.737	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
1.633	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
1.328	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
1.255	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
1.180	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
1.159	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
1.061	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
1.056	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
0.987	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
0.328	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
0.144	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
0.114	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
0.102	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
0.070	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
0.006	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-0.004	Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary?	Binary
-0.196	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-0.300	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
-0.334	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
-0.375	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-0.437	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
-0.451	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
-0.683	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
-1.480	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
-1.785	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
-1.949	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
-2.345	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
-3.801	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
-5.686	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
-5.782	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
-6.228	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-7.553	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
-7.847	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-8.615	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
-9.521	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-10.275	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
-11.085	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-11.220	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-14.511	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-16.538	Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary?	Binary
-18.602	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
-18.692	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
-112.626	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary